2015 Copa America Betting – Argentina vs. Paraguay

Argentina (-210) vs Paraguay (+800), Draw (+350)

The Municipal de Concepcion Stadium in Chile will be the setting tonight (7:30 PM Eastern) when Argentina and Paraguay meet for a second time in the 2015 Copa America. This time, however, the winner will earn a spot in the final against host nation Chile.

The squads opened the tournament with a 2-2 draw in the group stage. Argentina led 2-0 in the first half but the Guaranies never quit and shocked the World Cup runners-up with two goals in the second, including a 90th minute equalizer from Lucas Barrios.

Despite looking suspect at times in round robin play, Argentina come into today’s match as heavy favorites (sitting at -210) and remain the overall favorites to take home the title (currently at -110).

After nipping Paraguay for top spot in Group B, La Albiceleste needed penalties to get by Colombia (0-0, 5-4 pk) in the quarterfinals.  The usually high-scoring squad is now averaging just one goal per game in the tournament, though they have kept a clean sheet in three of four. Indeed, Paraguay are the only side to score against Argentina in the tournament.

Lionel Messi has been a disappointment so far. He notched a penalty against the Guaranies but hasn’t found the net otherwise.

“It’s incredible how hard it is for me to score a goal with the national team. Today I had really clear chances and I just couldn’t net the ball,” Messi said in the press conference after the quarterfinal win against Colombia.

Paraguay also needed penalties to get by favored Brazil in the quarterfinals. The tiny nation trailed the Selecao 1-0 after 15 minutes, but got a little help from Brazilian defender Thiago Silva, who committed a handball in the box in the second half. Derlis González was able to convert and then Paraguay scored on five straight kicks to oust the traditional South American power.

“We hope we will not struggle like we did in that first half [against Brazil], where we had to run around without touching the ball,” Paraguayan striker Nelson Haedo Valdez said to the press about the impending matchup with Argentina. “We want to give all teams a run for their money based on our effort, our courage and our passion for the Paraguay shirt. We want more.”

Paraguay’s run to the semifinals has been a nice story for the unheralded soccer nation. But Argentina have taken three of the last four in the head-to-head series (with the fourth being the 2-2 draw in the group stage) and have too much skill on their sideline to bow out at this stage. Look for Paraguay’s Cinderalla run to come to an end tonight as Messi and company outclass the plucky Guaranies. 

Pick: Argentina (-210). 

(Photo credit: Fanny Schertzer (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)