Copa del Rey – Semifinals Odds & Predictions

The second leg of the Copa del Rey Semifinals is on tap for this Wednesday (March 4). The four survivors of the 14-week tournament, Barcelona, Villarreal, Espanyol, and Athletic Bilbao, will be battling for a spot in the one-game, neutral site finale on May 29.

The two-game semifinals are determined by aggregate goals. In case of a tie, the team with more away goals will advance.

Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Villarreal vs. Barcelona (2:00 p.m. Eastern)

In the first leg, Barcelona beat Villarreal 3-1 at the Camp Nou Stadium on goals by Lionel Messi (41’), Andres Iniesta (49’), and Piqué (64’). Manu Trigueros scored the lone goal for the Yellow Submarine (48’).

Villarreal keeper Sergio Asenjo managed to save a penalty kick from the Brazilian winger Neymar, keeping his team’s hopes alight.

“The goal [by] Manu Trigueros [kept] us alive,” said Asenjo after the game. “It was a … negative result, yet leaves us a chance.”

Villa need to win 2-0 or by three goals in order to advance. (If the game ends 3-1 for Villa, it will go to extra time and then penalties.) Of course, even playing at home, beating Barcelona by multiple goals is a monumental task.

In the moneyline for the second leg, visiting Barcelona are the favorite, listed at -175; Villarreal are +400 and the draw +333. In the handicap, the Catalans are also the favorites at -1. You can also wager on either team winning in extra time and penalties: Barcelona are +4500 to win in extra time, while Villarreal are +15000. Both teams are +22500 to win on penalties.

Looking at the trends, these teams have met three times in the Copa del Rey; Barcelona beat Villarreal twice, and the other ended with a draw.

Barcelona are second in La Liga with 59 points (two back of Real Madrid). Villareal are a respectable sixth with 45 points.

Prediction: I expect the always potent Barcelona attack to benefit from Villa’s necessarily aggressive style of play. I’m taking Barcelona (-175).

Espanyol vs. Athletic Bilbao (4:00 p.m. Eastern)

Espanyol got an important draw at San Mames (1-1) in the first leg of this matchup. Bilbao striker Aritz Aduriz (11’) scored the first goal of the game, but Víctor Sánchez (35′) knotted it for Espanyol.

Despite being in great shape – needing only a one-goal victory at home to advance – Espanyol coach Sergio wasn’t entirely pleased with the game, feeling his team didn’t play with the necessary effort.

“[We didn’t struggle] because of our concentration but rather we were too relaxed and confident,” Espanyol’s Coach Sergio said after the game. “It was very difficult against opponents who never give up. In addition, the pitch wasn’t easy [to play on].”

In the moneyline, Espanyol are the slight favorite, listed at +110; Athletic Bilbao is +250 and the draw +240. Espanyol are also favored in the handicap (-1).

If the game ends in a 1-1 draw, extra time awaits.  Espanyol are +1400 while Bilbao is +1600 to win in extra time (which will only be played if the game ends 1-1 after 90 minutes) and both are +22000 to win on penalties.

Looking at the head-to-head between these sides in all the competitions, Espanyol leads the series with an 18-16-10 record. They have only met three times in Copa del Rey action, though, and all three ended in a draw.

In the local league, Athletic and Espanyol find themselves separated by just two points. Espanyol are in eighth in La Liga with 32 points (9-5-11 with a -4 goal difference), while Athletic are tenth with 30 points (8-6-11 and a -9 goal difference).

Prediction: Espanyol (+110) finds a way to send the home crowd home happy.

(Photo credit: Lluís from Sabadell (Barcelona), España (LFS_13398) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)