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NBA Finals Odds and Prediction – Cavaliers at Warriors

Zack Garrison

by Zack Garrison in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Wizards v/s Warriors 03/02/11

Cleveland Cavaliers (+200) at Golden State Warriors (-240)

Lebron James rarely comes into a single game, let alone an entire series, as an underdog. But with his Cleveland Cavaliers hobbling injured into the NBA Finals, the “King” finds himself a ‘dog to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, both for Game 1 (on Thursday June 4) and the broader series.

James is poised to make his fifth straight finals appearance after his Cavs dispatched of the Boston Celtics (four games), Chicago Bulls (six games), and Atlanta Hawks (four games) in the first three rounds. James went 2-2 in the finals with the Miami Heat.

Having already lost power forward Kevin Love for the season (shoulder), Cleveland is hoping that Kyrie Irving will be at full capacity – but that doesn’t look likely.

The dynamic point guard battled a knee injury in the conference finals, missing two of the four games, and still “isn’t himself”, according to to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

But even a half-capacity Irving is better than no Irving. ““Kyrie at 50 percent, Kyrie at 60 percent is better than [no] Kyrie at all,” James said to the Washington Post.

When healthy, Irving provides valuable secondary scoring for the Cavs, averaging 18.7 points per game in the playoffs. But losing Irving would mean more than a hit on the offensive end; the point guard expects to be tasked with guarding NBA MVP Steph Curry (even though he’s not known for his defense).

Despite the injury problems, Cleveland comes into the finals on a six-game win streak. James has largely put the team on his back, averaging 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game in the postseason. James’ one-man show has been reminiscent of Cleveland’s last run to the finals in 2007, when the Cavaliers boasted a much thinner lineup.

Injuries have also hit Golden State this postseason, but not quite as hard. Both “Splash Brothers” (Curry and Klay Thompson) suffered head injuries in the conference finals, but are expected to suit up on Thursday. Reserve big man Marreese Speights, on the other hand, remains questionable with a calf injury.

The Warriors have been favorites in each of their series to date thanks, in part, to home court advantage. Golden State went an unbelievable 39-2 at home in the regular season, and have lost just once at Oracle Arena in the playoffs.

Curry has kept up his MVP form in the second season, leading the team with 29.2 points and 6.4 assists per game.

Thompson’s numbers are a bit down. In the regular season, the Washington State product averaged 21.7 PPG and shot at a 44-percent clip from beyond the arc. In the playoffs, those numbers have fallen to 19.7 PPG and 42-percent.

But, by sharing the ball, Golden State is more than making up for any downturn in Klay’s production; the Warriors lead the playoffs with 25.1 assists per game. (The Cavs, on the other hand, lead the league in isolation plays, running 12.1 per game.)

Looking at the betting lines, the Warriors are currently -240 to capture their first NBA title since 1975, and the trends bode well for Steve Kerr’s squad: the Warriors’ home dominance led them to the best record in the NBA (67-15), and teams that won 65-plus games in the regular season are 13-0 in the NBA Finals.

Moreover, the team that wins the first game of the finals goes onto win the series 70.6-percent of the time and this year’s series will open at Oracle, the significance of which we have already discussed. Throw in the fact that James’ teams are 0-3 all-time in Game 1s on the road in the finals and you have a recipe for a Golden State Game 1 and series victory.

Pick: Warriors -240.

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)

 

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