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NBA Over/Under Tips: Who’s Going to Get Hot (or Not)?

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Klay Thompson driving to the hoop
Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Last week, I wrote about the best value plays for NBA MVP as the playoffs approach. This week, I’m focussing on individual teams, specifically, which ones are going to over/underperform down the stretch. Because the All-Star break lasts a week, many sportsbooks have posted revised season over/under win totals for all of the teams. Several caught my eye.


Golden State (47-9 at All-Star break): Under 67.5

The Warriors have three goals remaining for the regular season. They want to have the best overall record so that they have homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs; they want to stay healthy; and they want to enter the postseason rested.

Last year, the Warriors chased the best mark in NBA history all the way to the final regular season game, accomplishing the goal, but failing to win a title. They aren’t chasing history this year and have a healthy cushion at the top of the league; they’re four games up on the second-place Spurs and 7.5 up on the third-place Cavaliers.

The best way to stay healthy and be rested is to not play, something Cleveland and San Antonio already know. This year, Golden State’s top priority is a title. If the Warriors secure the top seed early, they will ease off considerably down the stretch and likely drop some meaningless games as they gear up for a playoff run.

Charlotte (24-32 at All-Star break): Over 36.5

This is a bad franchise and has been for a long time. That said, coach Steve Clifford is well respected throughout basketball circles, and the Hornets are very much in the race for one of the final Eastern Conference playoff spots. Perhaps no team in the league needed the All-Star break more than Charlotte. They lost four straight games entering the break. The last three were all close (six points or fewer) and the team is a stunning 0-7 in one-possession games this year, plus 0-3 in overtime. Those numbers should revert to the mean and be closer to .500.

Another reason to like the Hornets down the stretch is that they’ve played the most difficult schedule to date among Eastern Conference playoff contenders, meaning things will ease up in the second half of the year. Whether you like the acquisitions of Miles Plumlee and Chris Anderson or not, they show Charlotte is trying to win, not sell at the deadline. And even if Plumlee is overpaid, he does improve the Hornets, which should assist in going over 36.5 victories.

Minnesota (22-35 at All-Star Break): Over 32.5

The Wolves last made the playoffs in 2004 and haven’t had a winning season since 2005. They went 16-66 two years ago and finished 29-53 last season. Minnesota hired Tom Thibodeau over the summer to run a franchise that has a ton of young talent but little vision. Though Thibodeau can be difficult, he is brilliant. The Wolves are on the fringe of the playoff race, but that is irrelevant. They started the season 14-28 before winning five out of six. After setbacks against Cleveland, Detroit, Memphis, and Miami – all average or better squads – the Wolves rebounded to win three out of five prior to the break. In other words, they are competitive and, not surprisingly, took some time to adjust under Thibodeau.

Minnesota has the best point differential (-0.9) among teams not currently in the playoffs in the Western Conference. Their young core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Gorgui Dieng are improving, and setting up something that could be pretty special going forward. They are paving the way this year for the future, and should play well down the stretch.


 

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