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Wagering on Women’s Wimbledon? Be Wary

Petra Kvitova serving
Petra Kvitova (Pavel Lebeda/Česká sportovn [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/cz/deed.en])

Yesterday we found the best value for all you savvy bettors in Wimbledon’s men’s draw. With Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova not competing on the women’s side, there is no true favorite. No one will even have a good or bad draw, because no one knows what the most dangerous path to a title is.

The unpredictability means good odds. But it also means you have to do a lot more analysis in order to make the best and smartest value bet.

2017 Wimbledon, Women’s Draw: Who’s the best betting value?

Karolina Pliskova: 11/2

A tepid favorite if ever there was one, the 25-year-old from the Czech Republic is knocking on the door. She reached the finals at the U.S. Open last year, made the quarters in Australia at the start of this season, and earned a spot in the semifinals at the French Open. Prior to last August, she had never gotten past the third round of a major championship. Keep an eye on how she does at this week’s final Wimbledon tuneup, the Aegon International in Eastbourne.

Petra Kvitova: 6/1

A two-time Wimbledon champ, Kvitova was robbed and stabbed at her home in the Czech Republic in December. She suffered injuries to her left hand and was out of action until the French Open. She lost in the second round in Paris, but then won last week in Birmingham. Kvitova has been to the quarterfinals five times at Wimbledon. That said, she has failed to get to a semifinal at a major since winning at Wimbledon in 2014. She’ll be the sentimental favorite.

Johanna Konta: 8/1

The fact that Konta, who has never gotten beyond the second round at Wimbledon, is the third choice in the odds says a lot about the state of women’s tennis. She reached the quarterfinals at the Aussie Open before being dismissed in her opening match at the French. She has had a busy warm-up for Wimbledon, falling in the final at Nottingham and then losing in the second round in Birmingham before playing at Eastbourne this week. In late March she impressively beat Simona Halep, Venus Williams, and Caroline Wozniacki to take the title in Miami.

Simona Halep: 16/1

It’s hard to bet on a seven-year vet who has never won anything of consequence, but there is something to be said for solid. Halep reached the French Open final this year but was upset in three sets by longshot Jelena Ostapenko. She also reached the semis at Wimbledon in 2014 and the quarters last year, but she didn’t go beyond the quarters in any 2016 major. She competes this week in Eastbourne, her first tournament since Roland Garros

Agnieszka Radwanska: 20/1

Like Halep, Radwanska has been around but never broken through, and she was derailed in the third round at the French Open this year. However, she is a really secure bet to go decently far at Wimbledon: she lost in the final in 2012, the semis in 2013 and 2015, and the fourth round in ’06, ’10, ’14, and ’15. Like the majority of top players, her first action since the French Open is this week at the Aegon International.

The Best Bet

Anyone who thinks they know what is going to happen is out of of their mind. This is an unpredictable group. That said, going with a price that is likely to advance early on is a strong strategy. Radwanska is probably going to win several matches. Take her at a big price, and hedge individual matches once she gets to the fourth round. By that point, her odds will have dropped, and that presents value.

Photo Credit: By Pavel Lebeda / Česká sportovní (Pavel Lebeda / Česká sportovní) [CC BY-SA 3.0 cz (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/cz/deed.en)], via Wikimedia Commons

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been SBD's lead oddsmaker/number cruncher since 2014. He writes and edits about everything you can possibly put odds on. He's happiest when those things are football, baseball, hockey and basketball (in that order).