Who’s the Best Bet at Wimbledon 2017?

Roger Federer at Wimbledon
Roger Federer (elyob (Flickr) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0])

Men’s tennis is writing a narrative that is virtually unheard of. After dominating the sport for a decade, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal gave way to a (slightly) younger top pair in the form of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Then something amazing happened. Federer and Nadal seem to have found what Ponce de Leon could not and have returned to glory.

Federer is the favorite with Wimbledon coming up in less than a week, while Nadal is in the top-three. There are some things that are certain when it comes to betting on tennis’ biggest tournament of the year, like the fact you should use one of our top-rated and most-trusted betting sites. Other propositions, like betting on Federer and Nadal at short odds, are more risky. Should we trust that the veterans have actually bathed in the fountain of youth? Should we really put our money on either of them at the All England Club?

2017 Wimbledon: Who’s the best betting value?

Roger Federer: 11/5

A seven-time winner at Wimbledon, Federer went more than four years between securing his last two major titles. He hoisted the trophy in England in 2012, and then didn’t win his record 18th major until this year’s Australian Open. In order to rest up for the grass season, the 35-year-old sat out the French Open. He knows his best bet to continue playing at the highest level involves rest and prioritizing what he does best (i.e. playing on grass instead of clay).

While he dropped a surprise match to Tommy Haas in his Wimbledon build up, don’t put too much importance on that. Haas, one of Federer’s best friends, is on something of a farewell tour; Roger could not have had that killer instinct in him during the match. Federer went onto win in Germany last week without dropping a set. And even though he hasn’t won Wimbledon since 2012, he did reach the final in two of the last three years.

Andy Murray: 17/4 

Yes, he was ranked number one in the world at one point and he has two Olympic gold medals, but when it comes to the majors, Murray has never been “the guy,” unlike Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, who have each had turns dominating tennis’ biggest tournaments. Murray’s 2017 season has been dismal. His best performance of the year was a semi-final appearance at Roland Garros. He lost his first match during a Wimbledon tune-up in London last week.

That said, two of Murray’s three major titles came at Wimbledon, including last year, and one of his Olympic triumphs came on the grass at the All England Club. He also reached the final in two other majors last year (Australian, French). After exiting the Australian Open in the fourth round, he lost in the semis at Roland Garros.

Rafael Nadal: 9/2

Ten of Nadal’s 15 major titles have come at the French Open, and his win at Roland Garros this year was his first major title since 2014. He’s had success on grass in the past, winning Wimbledon in 2008 and 2010, and losing the final in 2011. But he hasn’t made the quarterfinals since.

Like Federer, he has tried to limit his schedule recently. While he’s only 31, four years junior to Roger, his style takes a toll on the body and he has battled injuries for years. He is 43-6 this year, but has taken off the last several weeks.

Novak Djokovic: 13/2

Djokovic took over the sport in 2015, winning three majors that year and adding the first two in 2016, too. However, the 12-time major winner has hit the skids, just like Murray. He was upset in the second round of the Australian Open and the quarterfinals in Paris. He also exited Wimbledon in the third round last year. He’ll need a strong showing in this week’s Aegon International to get some much needed confidence.

Milos Raonic: 14/1

Somebody has to be the best of the rest. At 26 years old, Raonic has all the tools, but has rarely put everything together. Grass is the best surface for the hard-serving Canadian, and he was the runner-up at Wimbledon last year, but that is the only major final he has ever reached. He made the semis in England in 2014. After a five-set, fourth-round exit against Pablo Carreno Busta at the French Open, Raonic lost 10-8 in the third set in his opening match at a Wimbledon warm-up in London.

The Best Bet 

The story of Roger and Rafa turning back the clock is for fairy tales, but not to bet on. Murray is the logical choice. He has a history of performing extremely well at this venue and will have a home-court advantage every time he steps out of the tunnel.

If Djokovic plays well this week, I would consider taking a shot on him. He’s at a very reasonable price and it was short months ago that he was the most dominant player on tour. I’m not prepared to write-off his career just yet.