According to the point spread, we have something of a mismatch on our hands this Saturday when the Oregon Ducks (19-12) play the Virginia Cavaliers (28-2) at KFC Yum! Center in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. The odds opened with Virginia as heavy 7-point chalk and the over/under at a miniscule 119. The game gets underway at 9:59 pm ET.
Oregon Ducks Preview
The underdog Ducks are scoring just 70 points per game, which ranks 253rd in the America. They are hitting at a sub-par 42-percent from the floor and 34-percent from beyond the arc (182nd). They rank 74th in offensive efficiency, which is 41 spots lower than the next-worst offense left in the tournament (Texas Tech, 33rd).
They have been better defensively, currently 20th in the country at 64 points against per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. But if this team hopes to pull the upset today, it’s going to need a more at the offensive end of the floor.
It’s the defense that’s gotten the job done so far in the tournament. In rounds one and two, Oregon routed #5 Wisconsin (72-54) and #13 UC Irvine (73-54) by an average of 18.5 PPG.
The Oregon offense has been led by Louis King, but he’s only scoring 13 points per game. King is also the team’s top rebounder, grabbing 6 rebounds per game.
Realistically, the offense hinges on junior guard Payton Pritchard, and lucky for the Ducks, he’s been getting better and better as the year has gone on.
Pritchard has scored at least 18 points in each of his last five games.
As a group, the Ducks struggle on the boards, averaging 31 rebounds per game, 238th overall. They need to shoot well to win since they don’t get a lot of second chances.
Oregon vs Virginia Statistical Comparison
|25-12 (7-1 neutral)||Record||31-3 (6-1 neutral)|
|+17.50 (29th)||Overall Efficiency Rating||+34.85 (1st)|
|109.7 (74th)||Offensive Efficiency Rating||123.0 (2nd)|
|92.2 (15th)||Defensive Efficiency Rating||88.1 (3rd)|
|72-54 vs #5 Wisconsin||Round 1 Result||71-56 vs #16 Gardner Webb|
|73-54 vs #13 UC Irvine||Round 2 Result||63-31 vs #9 Oklahoma|
Virginia Cavaliers Preview
The Ducks will be facing a Virginia team that is elite at the offensive end, ranked 5th in offensive rating. They only score 72 points per game, 191st in the nation, but only because they play at a methodical pace at both ends of the court.
They connect at a proficient 46-percent from the field, 41-percent from three (3rd), and 75-percent from the stripe (28th).
The Cavaliers pair their highly efficient offense with an arresting pack-line D, which sits 3rd in both defensive rating and defensive efficiency. They allowing just 55 points, on average, heading into today’s game. This is a team that can beat you in multiple ways.
Kyle Guy has been their go-to scorer, pouring in 15 points per game, while Braxton Key leads the Cavaliers on the boards, grabbing 6 rebounds a night.
As a team, Virginia is middling on the glass, hauling in 33 rebounds per game, which sits 156th in America, but that’s still better than Oregon.
The Cavaliers are coming off a 63-51 over #9 Oklahoma in their last game, after getting a scare from #16 Gardner Webb (71-56) in round one. Mamadi Diakite led the team in scoring against the Sooners with 14 points in the win.
Against the spread, Virginia is covering at a tremendous rate, going 24-10-0 ATS. But don’t run to the window just yet because Oregon is a solid 22-15-0 ATS, as well. In a nutshell, both teams have been better than expected this year, compared to the expectations of the oddsmakers that is.
Get up-to-the-minute moneyline, the history of how the line has moved, and our proprietary projection system’s score prediction for Oregon vs Virginia above. As always, best of luck betting.