There’s very little dividing the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (26-5) and the #2 Michigan State Spartans (25-6) according to sportsbooks. The spread for Saturday’s Final Four battle (8:49 pm at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN) opened at Spartans -3 with a total of 133 O/U.
The winner will face the winner of #5 Auburn vs #1 Virginia in Monday’s national title game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
The Red Raiders enter the game scoring a respectable 73 points per game, which ranks number 160 in America. They are better, efficiency-wise, sitting 82nd in offensive rating and 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. They connect at 44-percent from the field and 37-percent from three (73rd).
They are heavily reliant on future lottery pick Jarrett Culver (18.9 PPG), but aren’t completely one-dimensional. The consistency of secondary scorers Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti has been key in Tech’s March Madness run. Moretti has been in double-figures in all four tournament games, while Mooney had a crucial 17 points against #1 Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
Culver, meanwhile, has been sensational, averaging 21.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 4.5 APG in the tournament.
Of course, the Red Raiders have advanced to the school’s first-ever Final Four on the strength of their top-ranked defense. Chris Beard has his squad sitting first in the entire country in adjusted defensive efficiency. At this stage, they are the best defense in the 17-year history of the KenPom ratings.
They surrender just 59 points against per game and just held Gonzaga, the nation’s most-efficient offense, under 70 points in a hugely impressive 75-69 win.
That was just the fourth time this year the Zags had been held under 70. Red Raiders will need to make a concerted effort to keep Michigan State of the glass. Counter-intuitively, this is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation, only pulling down 32 rebounds a night (204th). The Spartans, on the other hand, are pulling in the third-most rebounds per game (39 RPG).
Texas Tech vs Michigan State Statistical Comparison
|30-6 (7-2 neutral)||Record||32-6 (9-1 neutral)|
|+29.53 (5th)||Overall Efficiency Rating||+31.50 (3rd)|
|113.6 (30th)||Offensive Efficiency Rating||121.7 (5th)|
|84.1 (1st)||Defensive Efficiency Rating||90.2 (8th)|
|72-57 vs #14 Northern Kentucky||Round of 64 Result||76-65 vs #15 Bradley|
|78-58 vs #6 Buffalo||Round of 32 Result||70-50 vs #10 Minnesota|
|63-44 vs #2 Michigan||Sweet 16 Result||80-63 vs #3 LSU|
|75-69 vs #1 Gonzaga||Elite 8 Result||68-67 vs #1 Duke|
Michigan St Spartans Preview
The Red Raiders will be facing a Michigan State bunch that is deft on offense, currently 11th in offensive rating, 5th in offensive efficiency, and 39th in points per game (80 PPG).
The Spartans pair their efficient offense with a resilient D, one which sits 20th in defensive rating and 8th in adjusted efficiency, allowing only 66 points, on average. It’s going to be difficult for Texas Tech to find a weakness to exploit.
Point guard Cassius Winston leads the team offensively, averaging 19 points a night, while Kenny Goins leads the Spartans in rebounding, pulling down 9 RPG.
Goins’s work on the glass has helped Michigan St dominate that aspect of the game, as mentioned.
The Spartans came out on top in their last game, beating top-ranked Duke 68-67. Winston led the team in scoring, as usual, pouring in 20 points in the win, while sophomore forward Xavier Tillman added 19 points and 9 rebounds.
Michigan State showed a ton of resilience against the Blue Devils. After falling behind 30-21, they went on a 13-0 run to close the first half. They also came back from 66-63 down in the final minutes to advance to the school’s first Final Four since 2015.
Against the number, Michigan St has been profitable, going 27-11-0 ATS. But take a moment before putting your money down because Texas Tech is a solid 19-16-1 ATS, itself. Both teams have far exceeded expectations this season.
Find the complete slate of odds, the line movement, and the score prediction for Texas Tech vs Michigan St in the tables above. As always, good luck with your wagers.