Georgia (11-2) is favored against Texas (9-4) at the Sugar Bowl in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Tuesday (January 1, 2019, 20:45ET).
The spread started at a healthy -11.0 points for the Bulldogs. They’ve gone a reassuring 11-1 straight up as favorites this year, and 7-5-0 against the spread. The Longhorns are 2-2 straight up as underdogs, and 2-1-1 against the spread.
Georgia had a fantastic season, and were denied their second championship of the calendar year by an Alabama backup quarterback leading a fourth quarter comeback in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. They should maybe stop playing in this building.
Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 68.4% of his attempts this season for 2,537 yards and 27 touchdowns. Fromm is an efficient quarterback, with a passer rating of 175.8 this season. D’Andre Swift gained 1,304 yards from scrimmage and rushed for 10 touchdowns, averaging an excellent 6.7 yards per carry.
As a whole, the team gained 479.2 yards per game and scored 39.2 points per game. The Bulldogs thus feature one of the best offenses in the country. The defense allowed just 311.2 yards and 18.5 points per game, while D’Andre Walker led the way with 8 sacks this season.
Texas isn’t back, but they’re certainly well on the way. They scored a lot of Back Bucks by beating USC and Oklahoma, but gave a lot up losing to Maryland (again) and a mediocre Oklahoma State.
The Longhorns offense features QB Sam Ehlinger, who passed for 3,123 yards and 25 TD’s this season. Ehlinger completed 64.3% of his passes, which works out to a passer rating of 148.5. Tre Watson ran for 1,037 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
Altogether, Texas averaged 415.9 yards per game and 31.3 points. The defense allowed 401.2 yards and 26.2 points per game. Charles Omenihu notched 10 sacks this season.
Sugar Bowl Betting Advice
Georgia’s by far the better team, but might have something of a hangover from an emotional SEC Championship and the possible transfer of Justin Fields. Texas has a pretty good squad, and this line is huge, so I’d take a long hard look at the points here.