Pittsburgh (7-6) is the favorite against Stanford (8-4) at the Sun Bowl on Monday (December 31, 2018, 14:00ET).
The betting line was first offered at -7.0 points for Stanford. Pittsburgh has a history of scoring weird upsets, though, so Stanford fans should be wary.
Pitt’s annual Playoff Campaign Ruining came in their third game of the season, beating Syracuse 44-37. They kept Notre Dame close the next week, but didn’t quite score the upset.
Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett completed 60.1% of his passes this season for 1,833 yards and 12 touchdowns. Qadree Ollison gained 1,256 yards from scrimmage and rushed for 11 touchdowns, averaging a solid 6.3 yards per carry.
As a whole, the team gained 371.8 yards per game and scored 26.6 points per game. The defense allowed 402.3 yards and 28.8 points per game, while Rashad Weaver led the team with 6 sacks this season.
Stanford came a play away from beating Washington and three points from beating Washington State. That’s all that separated the Cardinal from winning the Pac-12 North, but that’s football.
The Cardinal offense features quarterback K.J. Costello, who passed for 3,435 yards and 29 TD’s this season. Costello completed 66.4% of his passes, which works out to a passer rating of 157.9. Bryce Love ran for 1,190 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Altogether, Stanford averaged 395.4 yards per game and 29.6 points. The defense allowed 415.6 yards and 23.8 points per game. Gabe Reid notched 6 sacks this season.
Sun Bowl Betting Advice
Neither of these teams is really exceptional on either side of the ball, so betting the game total is tough. The over is 5-8 in Pittsburgh games this season, which is enticing. The Stanford over is 7-5 this season. Betting the total(set at 52.0) could be the way to find value in this game.