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The 10 Best Bets of 2021

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in News

Updated Jan 7, 2021 · 10:08 AM PST

Fans at AT&T Stadium
Members of the Dallas Cowboys cheer team motivate fans during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
  • We’re only a handful of days into 2021, but we’ve had no shortage of sports to bet on
  • There are plenty of huge sporting events scheduled throughout the year
  • Find the best bets you can make this year below

Before I dive in here, I want to make it clear that there is no such thing as a “sure-thing” in sports betting. Teams and athletes overperform and underperform expectations all the time, and big upsets do happen. But I feel really good about these ten bets for 2021:

1) Bet on the Cowboys Being the First Team to Sellout a Stadium in 2021

Cowboys fans are some of the most passionate in the league. They’ll have a lot to look forward to in 2021, as well. Dak Prescott will return from his gruesome ankle injury, and they’ll be adding another exciting player with the 10th-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Add in the excitement of finally getting back to gatherings and sporting events, and there’s no way Jerry Jones doesn’t pack AT&T Stadium Week 1, assuming they do open the season at home. (They opened the 2020 season on the road.)

Odds to Be the First NFL Team to Sellout Their Stadium

Team SBD’s Odds
Dallas Cowboys +400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450
Miami Dolphins +550
Jacksonville Jaguars +575
Kansas City Chiefs +600

The Cowboys allowed a total of 27,377 fans inside AT&T Stadium in their eight home games this past season, nearly double what the next team (Jacksonville) allowed. Texas’ social gathering rules have been far less strict than most states, outside of maybe only Florida.

There were only 18 NFL teams who allowed fans at their home games in 2020, and only 13 who allowed fans at more than four of their home games.

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With the vaccine beginning to be dispersed, albeit much slower than we had hoped, the world should have the pandemic under control by September. When that happens, you’ll likely still have some states who restrict gatherings to limited capacity. Texas won’t be one of them, and I’m very confident Jerry will be the first to open his doors to everyone.

Pick: Cowboys to be first NFL team to sellout a stadium (+400)

2) Trevor Lawrence to Win 2021 NFL OROY

If a rookie quarterback starts for his team in Week 1, and keeps the starting job all season without leading the league in turnovers, he’s going to be a top contender for the NFL OROY award.

Trevor Lawrence is going to start Week 1 for the Jaguars, and he’s going to be very, very good.

The Clemson product is arguably the greatest QB prospect we’ve ever seen. He’s also going to have some pretty good weapons around him in James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr, and likely a few more highly-touted rookies joining the Jaguars with him.

As long as Lawrence doesn’t open up shorter than -150 to win the 2021 NFL OROY award, I’ll be betting him.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence to win NFL OROY

3) Chiefs 2021 NFL Win Total Goes Over

In three seasons with Patrick Mahomes as their starter, the Chiefs have won 12, 12, and 14 games. In his second season, Matt Moore was under center for one of their four losses, as Mahomes was out with a knee injury. This past season, Chad Henne was under center for one of their two losses, as Kansas City opted to rest many of their starters in Week 17.

Simply put, Mahomes is the greatest I’ve ever seen. Having him paired with Andy Reid is going to make this team near-unstoppable for the foreseeable future.

The rest of the AFC West is mediocre at best, though the Chargers could take a big leap next season, and the scariest part of it all is that Mahomes is still getting better.

Kansas City’s win total opened at 11.5 in 2020. With some potential optimism around the Chargers, I foresee KC opening at a similar number in 2021. I’m betting the over as high as 12.5.

Pick: Over on Chiefs 2021 win total

4) Suns to Make the NBA Playoffs

I made this my best bet to make ahead of tip-off of the 2020-21 NBA season, and I’m still betting it now. The Suns have started the season 5-2 with impressive wins over the Mavericks, Jazz, and Nuggets, and also mounted a pretty nice comeback against the Clippers, losing by five.

Here are the current odds to make the playoffs for the four teams mentioned above:

  • Mavericks: -400
  • Jazz: -850
  • Nuggets: -600
  • Clippers: -6000

The Suns, however, are still being offered at -280 to make the playoffs. Chris Paul won’t miss the playoffs. Jump on this before their odds get too short.

Pick: Suns to make the playoffs (-280)

5) Floyd Mayweather Knocks Out Logan Paul

The fact that this fight is actually happening is laughable. Of course, Floyd Mayweather has opened as the heavy -6000 favorite, and there is no value in betting those odds. (Please don’t do it.)

However, as we draw closer to the fight, sportsbooks will open some props for the bout. When they do, you need to look at the odds on: (1) Mayweather knocking out Paul, which will probably still be too short; (2) round betting.

This fight is not making it to the fourth round. Mayweather values his 50-0 record (with 27 KOs) just as much as his money. He’s not going to take this fight lightly, especially after Conor McGregor took him to the tenth round in his last fight back in 2017.

The win might come via TKO instead of true KO, but it’s going to end very early.

Pick: Mayweather to knockout Paul

6) Brooklyn Nets to Win NBA Championship

The Nets are doing you a favor by getting out to a bit of a slow start this season. The duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is second to only LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and it’s closer than some want to admit. It will take some time, however, for the two to learn to play together, and with the rest of their teammates.

Irving hadn’t played meaningful basketball since March of 2020, and Durant hadn’t since June of 2019. The two are going to ease themselves back into it, but will start really hitting their stride around the midseason mark. Come playoffs, they’ll be unstoppable and will coast through a pretty uninspiring Eastern Conference.

I don’t believe Giannis Antetokounmpo can carry a team to the Finals, and his supporting cast in Milwaukee is no better this year than it had been the previous two.

Set yourself up with a nice hedge opportunity when they meet the Lakers/Clippers in the Finals.

Pick: Nets to win NBA Championship (+600)

7) Serena Williams Wins a Slam

Serena Williams still sits just one Slam title behind Margaret Court for the most all-time. She has not won a Slam since the Australian Open in 2017. She has made four finals appearances, two at Wimbledon and two at the US Open, since then and was most recently taken down in the semifinals of the 2020 US Open.

At 39 years old, Williams knows she doesn’t have a ton of time left. And when the best player of all-time is playing with a sense of urgency, and is well-rested, she’s going be nearly impossible to stop. Her coach Patrick Mouratoglou recently said, “It is a failure for her not to win a Grand Slam tournament, so we are disappointed. We have to face reality, but she is convinced she can do it, otherwise she wouldn’t be on the tennis courts yet.”

Williams is +1200 to win the Australian Open in February, +1700 to win the French Open, +750 to win Wimbledon, and +850 to win the US Open. I’ll likely lay off her at the French Open, where she’s only won in three of 18 appearances.

But she’s won seven of 19 at each the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and won six of 20 appearances at the US Open. I’ll be betting her to win each of these three this year.

Pick: Serena Williams to win a major

8) Wisconsin to Win March Madness Tournament

The Badgers have gotten off to a 9-2 start this season with nice wins over Michigan State (on the road) and Minnesota. They are currently ranked eighth in the AP Poll, but are fourth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, only a handful of points behind top-ranked Gonzaga.

Micah Potter gives Wisconsin the ability to bang inside with the rest of the Big Ten, while D’Mitrik Trice has been providing plenty of offense from the backcourt. The Badgers have strong enough guard play to work their way through the tournament, and have an experienced lineup that won’t crumble under pressure.

They’re as short as +900 at some sportsbooks. Take the +1500 odds while they’re still available, and set yourself up with a nice hedging opportunity when they meet Gonzaga in the championship game.

Pick: Wisconsin to win March Madness Tournament (+1500)

9) Yankees to Win the AL East

In a shortened 2020 season, the Yankees watched the Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East, the first time they had done so since 2010. The year prior, the Yankees cruised to a division title with a 103-59 record. Surprisingly, this was their first AL East title since 2012.

I’m betting the Yankees to make it two division titles in the last three years.

The race will again come down to New York and Tampa Bay, and I don’t believe the Rays will be as dominant without Blake Snell in their rotation – they recently traded him to San Diego (more on that in a bit). The Rays were not a great offensive team last year, ranking 12th in runs scored.

Their rotation was great, though. Tampa Bay posted a 3.56 ERA, good for third-best in the Majors. They still have a quality bullpen, but the loss of Snell will be huge.

The Yankees, on the other hand, possess one of the best offenses in baseball and should get Luis Severino back in June/July to beef up a rotation led by Gerrit Cole.

We haven’t seen any MLB division futures open yet, but I’m betting the Yankees at anything longer than +120.

Pick: Yankees to win the AL East

10) Padres to Win the World Series

While the loss of Blake Snell will cripple the Rays, the addition of Snell is going to vault the Padres into the most complete team in the MLB. Oh, they also added another starting pitcher by the name of Yu Darvish. You might have heard of him before too.

A rotation of Snell, Darvish, Zach Davies, and Dinelson Lamet (plus Chris Paddock or Luis Patino) has the potential to be absolutely dominant.

They also return their entire offensive core of Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Trent Grisham, who led them to the third-most runs scored in the Majors last season. As if that wasn’t enough, San Diego added star Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim.

This roster is loaded. They should not be available at +1000 odds still.

Pick: Padres to win the World Series (+1000)

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