5 Huge Longshot Bets That Terrified Sportsbooks in 2018

‘Tis the season … for scaring the **** out of each other.

As Hallowe’en approaches, we are looking back at some of the biggest longshot bets that cashed in 2018, or at least came close enough to make sportsbooks soil their briefs.

Don’t feel bad for the sportsbooks, of course; they were able to wipe up the mess with the giant stacks of cash they made from squares hammering the favorites on a nightly basis. But I digress.

5. Vegas Golden Knights to win the 2018 Stanley Cup (+50,000)

No one thought the expansion Golden Knights would even contend for a playoff spot, let alone run away with the Pacific Division and make a run to the Stanley Cup final in their inaugural season, least of all sportsbooks. So oddsmakers didn’t hesitate to offer the Knights to win the cup at +50000 (500/1), and Vegas residents in particular didn’t hesitate to take a flyer on their new team.

“I figured the tickets were just souvenirs. It’s probably the most liability of any team (of any sport) during my 10 years here.”

— MGM sportsbook’s Jay Rood to @dougespn on Vegas Golden Knights, who were as high as 500/1 to win title & are now in the Stanley Cup Final. pic.twitter.com/TQLkFiwokZ

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) May 20, 2018

Ultimately, the Knights’ dream season ended just short of the ultimate goal as the team lost to the Washington Capitals in five games. But if Vegas had found a way to win just one more series, sportsbooks the country over would have taken an unprecedented hit. They were so scared of a Vegas win that, when the finals started, they had the Knights at -160 to win compared to +140 for the Caps, even though Washington was the better team by most metrics. They simply couldn’t afford any more liability on the onetime underdog.

4. #16 UMBC to beat #1 Virginia (+2,000)

Prior to 2018, the chaos of March Madness had its limits. No #16 seed had ever beaten a #1. They were 0-135! It was the only thing bracketologists, amateur and professional alike, could count on in the Round of 64.

Evidently, they don’t teach NCAA Tournament History 101 at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County because the #16 UMBC Retrievers laid a beatdown for the ages on #1-overall seed Virginia (74-54).

The sportsbook at the Venetian took a big hit on the game as some dreamer put $800 on the Retrievers at +2000, resulting in a $16,000 payout.

3. Blake Snell to win the 2018 AL Cy Young (+30,000)

If you’ve been following our Cy Young Odds Tracker this season, you already know that Boston’s Chris Sale (+235) and Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (+260) were heavy favorites in the AL at the start of the year. They were followed by three other veteran fireballers: Carlos Carrasco, Justin Verlander, and James Paxton.

Way, way, way down the list was a guy named Blake Snell (+30000), a 2011 first-round pick who was still trying to find his footing in the majors. The Tampa starter had been up and down between the Tampa Bay Rays and Triple A Durham in 2017. But those who were paying close attention could see his 2018 breakout coming.  After being called back up from Durham in July 2017, he posted a 5-1 record and 3.31 ERA, significantly better than the 4.71 ERA he was sporting early in the year.

In 2018, Snell picked up where he left off. Then he got a little better, and a little better, and a little better. In 20 starts before the All-Star Game, he was 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. In 11 starts after the ASG, he was 9-0 with a 1.17 ERA, ultimately finishing the year with a 1.89 ERA and miniscule 0.97 WHIP.

An injury midseason cost him some time and he only pitched 180.2 innings, in total, but he led all AL pitchers in WAR, ERA, hits per 9 IP, adjusted ERA+, and wins. He was also second in WHIP and fourth in K/9.

Blake Snell leapfrogs Chris Sale to become betting favorite for AL Cy Young. https://t.co/Fn4uhJeZ3i pic.twitter.com/bdS8fc7mPu

— theScore (@theScore) September 28, 2018

In late September (the last time sportsbooks posted AL Cy Young odds), Snell finally passed Chris Sale to become the odds-on favorite. He is going to win the award and everyone holding a ticket on Snell from the preseason is in for a massive payday.

2. #11 Loyola Chicago to win the South Region (+10,000)

As neat as the UMBC upset story was, 2018 March Madness produced an even greater underdog story. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament a #11 seed with +10000 (100/1) odds to win the South Region. The South was stacked with #1-overall seed Virginia, plus #4 Arizona and #5 Kentucky, two other teams with Final Four upside. It looked like the “Region of Death” at the outset.

But the big dogs started falling early, and that opened the door for the Ramblers. A combination of smothering defense, supremely clutch shooting, and perhaps a little divine intervention allowed Loyola to squeak past #6 Miami (64-62), #3 Tennessee (63-62), and #7 Nevada (69-68) by a combined four  points.

In the Elite Eight, they had the luxury of facing #9 Kansas State, a team missing leading scorer Dean Wade. They put the boots to the Jayhawks (78-62) which simultaneously punched their ticket to the Final Four and cashed 100/1 bets on the Ramblers to win the South.

1. Patrick Mahomes to win the 2018 NFL MVP at (+10,000)

Back in April when the 2018 NFL MVP odds first opened, the usual suspects were near the top of the list: Tom Brady (+600), Aaron Rodgers (+700), Drew Brees (+1100), etc. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes was an afterthought at +10000. That made sense at the time. He was a second-year player with one career start under his belt and zero career touchdown passes.

But plenty of bettors recognized the potential for the Texas Tech product to bust out in Andy Reid’s system. It wasn’t just that Mahomes had the size, speed, and arm strength of an elite QB, he was also surrounded by the best skill-position group in the NFL between Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Sammy Watkins, and Chris Conley.

2018 NFL MVP Favorites

So many bettors jumped on Mahomes early that his odds went from +10000 to +4000 before the season even started. You all know what happened next. Mahomes set an NFL record with 13 TD passes in the first three games, and he’s barely slowed down since. Through Week 8, he leads the league with 26 TDs and 2,526 passing yards, while his Chiefs are an AFC-best 7-1. Mahomes now has the best odds to win MVP at +240 and plenty of sportsbooks are hoping he nosedives like his coach come playoff time.

Did we miss a longshot you think should be on the list? Let us know on Twitter or Facebook, or in the comments section below!