California’s 2022 Sports Betting Fate To Be Decided Next Week

• California voters will flock to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 8
• Two sports betting initiatives will be on the ballot
• Neither online or retail sports betting initiatives are polling well

In one week we’ll know the fate of California online sports betting (though we may already have a good idea, depending on what polls you’ve seen).

On Tuesday, Nov. 8, California voters will head to the voting booths to potentially legalize online sports betting, retail sports betting, both, or neither in the form of two of the most expensive ballot initiatives of all time.

California Sports Betting Initiatives

Two propositions will appear on the Nov. 8 ballot for California voters.

Prop 27, the “California Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support Act,” aims to legalize California online sports betting for operators partnered with California Tribes. Prop 27 calls for a 10% tax on online sports betting, with 85% of tax revenues going to programs to help solve homelessness and those that support mental health. The remaining 15% of the tax revenues would be earmarked for California tribes not partnered with an operator.

It’s joined by Prop 26, “Tribal Sports Wagering Act,” which would legalize retail sports betting for California Tribal Casinos and four state racetracks. It would also expanding gaming opportunities for tribal casinos.

So what happens now? Both initiatives will be decided by the whim of California voters, but what happens if both are approved? If neither are approved? And who exactly is supporting these initiatives?

What Are the Potential Outcomes?

Both will appear on the ballot and California voters will be asked to vote “yes” or “no” on each question. If either of the measures receive more than 50% “yes” votes, they will be approved and go into effect in 2023.

But what happens if both get approved by voters? Will both go into effect? Here’s where things get a little tricky. According to the constitution of California, if there are two voter initiatives on a ballot that are in direct conflict with each other and they are both approved by voters, the initiative that has the highest amount of votes will go into effect.

As it’s written, the “California Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support Act” claims it is not in direct conflict with any retail sports betting measure that may appear on the ballot.

“Online and in-person sports betting are complementary and supplementary to each other. They can be offered concurrently in California in order to maximize the amount of tax revenue generated,” authors wrote in the initiative.

So what does this mean? The wording in the online sports betting initiative declares if both are approved by California voters then each measure can go into effect in 2023. The claim that the measures are not in direct conflict with each other will likely be a heated point of contention if both initiatives are approved.

If both are approved, but the online initiative receives more votes than the retail initiative, both will go into effect. However, if both pass and the retail sports betting initiative receives more votes, the backing California tribes would likely take the result to court and seek to declare the online sports betting measure to be in direct conflict with their retail measure.

Who Is Backing These Initiatives?

If you believe in voter surveys, it doesn’t appear that many California voters are backing either of the sports betting initiatives.

According to the results of a recent poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), only 26% of surveyed voters would vote yes for Prop 27,  67% would vote “no” and 8% are unsure. The share voting “yes” has decreased since a the PPIC released a mid-September poll in which 34% of respondents said they would vote yes for the online sports betting initiative.

Younger aged voters, those between 18 and 44 years of age, are far more likely to vote in favor of Prop 27. 41% of respondents in that age group said they approve of the initiative, while only 19% of those surveyed over the age of 45 support the measure.

For the first time, the PPIC asked surveyed voters their opinions on Prop 26, the “Tribal Sports Wagering Act,” which would legalize retail sports betting for California Tribal Casinos and four state racetracks. According to the survey, if the election were held today only 34% of respondents would vote in favor of Prop 26, 57% would vote no, and 9% are unsure.

A majority of respondents across all regions and demographic groups, except for likely voters between the ages of 18 and 44, would vote no on Prop 26, according to the survey.

Findings in the PPIC report were based on a survey of 1,715 California adult residents.

Already Looking Ahead to 2024?

In early October, the Wall Street Journal reported that online sports betting operators DraftKings and FanDuel planned to pull back $11 million in broadcast television and cable ads after disheartening results from a UC Berkley sports betting poll.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins and FanDuel CEO Amy Howe both expressed hope that Prop 27 would still be approved in November during conversations at the recent Global Gaming Expo meeting in October, but if not that momentum from 2022 would carry over into 2024 for another potential California online sports betting initiative.

The massive spend on either side likely has turned off sports betting supporters for either the online sports betting initiative and the retail initiative, both said.

“We will live to fight another day,” Howe said at the meeting.

There is no opportunity for a statewide online sports betting ballot initiative in 2023, as California will only hold municipal elections next year.