Odds Heavily Favor Disney+ Having More Subscribers Than Apple TV+ and HBO Now by 2022
- Disney+ has had an immediate ripple effect in the binge-watcher consumer market
- Will Apple TV+ or HBO Now shake up the multimedia game in a big way?
- Get the latest odds on the battle between streaming services
Streaming content is the go-to for many people nowadays. Platforms like Netflix, Hulu, and Crave became part of the collective pop-culture consciousness years ago. The landscape has been fruitful and has proved enticing for several media heavyweights.
Disney+ is a recent example of a giant outlet getting into the streaming game. Other names like Apple and HBO are also trying to make waves with their respective platforms.
In the years to come, which media giant will win the war for subscribers? That’s the subject of some sportsbooks latest entertainment props. Check out the odds and my analysis below.
Odds on Which Streaming Platform Will Have Most Subscribers by 2022
| Streaming Service | Odds |
|---|---|
| Disney + | -400 |
| Apple TV + | +350 |
| HBO Now | +500 |
Odds taken Nov 21.
With 2019 soon coming to an end, many are starting to look towards the new decade, including those in the on-demand streaming market. The subscriber figures for Disney+ are already quite impressive. In a little over a day, it signed up over ten million people. For comparison, HBO Now took nearly three years to reach around five million subscribers (and is now at eight million lifetime subs).
There have been glitches and service outages on Disney+ though. It will be interesting to see how many of those ten million subscribers elect to cancel due to user issues.
As far as Apple TV+, analyst Dan Rayburn projects that platform could also get up to ten million subscribers within the first year of availability. With a lot of these figures, one of the big things to look at long term is churn rate. This refers to the inevitable number of users who stop utilizing a platform after a marketed free-trial period elapses.
Disney+ Domination
Apple TV+ is looking to carve out its own place in this media sphere. It’s taking on an interesting tactic of being smaller scale but also being cheaper for prospective subscribers. Apple TV+ is looking to charge $5, undercutting Disney+ at $7, Netflix at $9, and HBO at $15 a month. Apple also offered a free one-year trial of the service if you buy an Apple device. As far as generating organic buzz online, Disney+ very much seems to be the most hotly discussed platform by far.
I scream, you scream, we all scream watching Jeff Goldblum eat ice cream.
The newest episode of #TheWorldAccordingToJeffGoldblum is now streaming on @DisneyPlus. pic.twitter.com/mg4oOq0mrI— Nat Geo Channel (@NatGeoChannel) November 15, 2019
On a content level, Apple TV+ definitely has the sparsest library. Apple will have to make a much bigger push for original content because they have nowhere near the back catalogs that outlets like HBO and Disney have.
HBO Now is the least likely to have the most subscribers by 2022 and for good reason. The company is already looking to roll out HBO Max and put their promotional backing behind that. If HBO is to really make a huge splash on the streaming scene, it won’t be through HBO Now.
For Disney+ subscriber numbers, some projections say that it will reach between 60 and 90 million by 2022. Based on Kris Shankar’s projections, the analyst posits Apple TV+ could trend towards 36 million by the end of 2022. The edge is clearly in favor of Disney+, now and going forward.
All factors considered, I see Disney+ having the most subscribers by 2022.
Pick: Disney+ (-400)
A part-time writer and full-time broadcaster, Dylan has hosted MMA talk shows Lights Out and Pure Fight Radio with featured guests like Jens Pulver, Roy Nelson, Miesha Tate, and covered some of the biggest MMA promotions like Rumble in the Cage, Unified MMA, and King of the Cage.
