Finland vs Sweden World Juniors Group A Odds & Pick
- Sweden has not lost a preliminary round game against Finland since 2005 tournament
- Expectations are high in net for Finland
- All eyes on projected 2021 first overall pick Aatu Raty
For the fourth time in the tournament’s history, the 2020 IIHF U20 World Junior Championship will be held in the Czech Republic. Sweden is favored at -130 in their inaugural match against Finland.
In the last 10 tournaments, both teams have combined to win seven medals (Finland- three gold, Sweden- one gold, three silver, one bronze). The Finns are set to defend their 2019 Gold Medal title, which marks their third gold medal in the last six tournaments (2014, 2016, 2019).
Sweden vs Finland Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Puckline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | Even | +1.5 (-300) | O 5.5 (-105) |
| Sweden | -130 | -1.5 (+215) | U 5.5 (-125) |
Odds taken Dec. 23
Sweden Has Won Six of Last Seven Preliminary Games
Going into the 2020 preliminary round, Sweden and Finland have faced each other seven times in the last 15 tournaments, with Sweden winning the last six games. The last time Finland won a preliminary game against Sweden was on December 29, 2004.
Having said that, Finland has beaten Sweden when it counts, winning three of the last five times these teams faced each other in the elimination round, including the 2014 WJC gold medal game.
Finland Has Edge in Goaltending
Both teams have extremely talented rosters, especially in goal. While Sweden has more tenured netminders and is expected to start Hugo Alnefelt (SHL, 1.95 GAA, .920 SV%) or Erik Portillo (USHL, 2.05 GAA, .912 SV%), Finland is going into the tournament with the talented Justus Annunen their likely No. 1 goaltender.
Jack Hughes came inches away from giving USA the 3-2 lead. Important save by Justus Annunen. #U18Worlds #NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/0buPf4Dq1L
— Steven Ellis (@StevenEllisNHL) April 29, 2018
Drafted 64th overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Annunen has posted impressive numbers for Karpat of SM-Liiga (Finnish Elite League). In 13 games, the 19-year-old is 11-0-2, brandishing a 1.26 GAA and .940 SV%. He also has five shutouts in 2019-2020, four of which were consecutive.
A Showcase of Upcoming Draft Talent
One of the more compelling players to watch on Sweden is wing Alexander Holtz, who was ranked No. 3 on NHL.com’s list of eligible 2020 draftees. The 17-year old has three goals and eight points in 21 games played for Djurgardens IF (SHL) and is playing in his first IIHF U20 tournament.
The most intriguing player to watch this game, however, is 17-year old center Aatu Raty, who is projected to go first overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Like Annunen, Raty plays for SM-Liiga’s Karpat, where he’s posted two goals and four points in 12 contests this season. Like Holtz, Raty this is also Raty’s first U20 WJC tournament.
Best Picks
International tournaments like the WJC showcase the best of the best for each country and can be less-predictable since one year’s roster for a team will differ vastly from the previous year’s tournament.
Finland certainly has the edge in net but Sweden is the more talented and experienced team. Throw in their long-lasting winning streak over Finland in the preliminary rounds, I’d say you should expect a high-scoring affair with Sweden coming out on top.
Picks: Sweden -1 ½ (+215), Over 5.5 (-105)
Mike has been covering the NHL for over 10 years, having first started publishing fan-written content on independent sites like Hockeybuzz.com and more credentialed sites such as Hockey Guys. He is now a contributor for Pucks and Pitchforks. He currently lives in Westchester County, New York.
