Five Best Futures Bets to Make Entering 2020

• My best bets in the 2019 futures market wound up plus 5.0 units
• I’ve found five more 2020 wagers that I’m putting my own money on
• See my five favorite futures bets for the upcoming year, which range from the NHL to the Champions League to March Madness (and beyond)

Last year’s five-best futures bets ended up plus 5.0 units thanks to Liverpool winning the Champions League at +900. The bottom line would have gone from great to phenomenal if the New Orleans Saints hadn’t been victimized by bad officiating in the NFC Championship Game.

Apparently, 12 full months is not long enough for my bitterness to subside. Perhaps shifting focus to 2020 will help me forget. Here are my five favorite futures bets to make as the calendar flips to 2020.

All odds below are as of Dec. 30, 2019.

5. Roger Federer to Win Zero Grand Slams at -180

Here are the full odds for Federer winning the 2020 Grand Slams.

Federer hasn’t won a Grand Slam since the 2018 Australian Open. He has reached just one final in the last seven Slams (2019 Wimbledon) and one other semifinal (2019 French). His resurgence from 2017 to early 2018 has somewhat ebbed. Now 38 years old, his 2019 season ended on a down note, losing two of his final four matches in the ATP Finals to Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

He is not at the top of his game right now and the Australian Open is just around the corner. His +800 odds to win the 2020 Aussie Open are telling. He’s not considered a true threat and would be longer if not for his name value.

If we cross off Melbourne along with the French Open (which Rafael Nadal has won three straight years and 12 of the last 15), that only leaves Federer with two other opportunities: Wimbledon and the US Open.

Obviously, 2020 Wimbledon is the biggest risk. But he’s currently +400 to win the Grand Slam where he’s had the most success (eight titles). If Federer looks to be a true threat when Wimbledon rolls around, you will be able to hedge out of this pretty easily.

If, as I expect, we see him decline as the likes of Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, and Alex Zverev start to challenge Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the big stage, you won’t feel the need to hedge anything.

4. Barcelona to Win the Champions League at +550

Barcelona cruised through the group stage of the Champions League without losing (4-2-0) despite being placed in a tough quartet with Dortmund, Inter Milan, and Slavia Praha. They also sit atop La Liga entering the New Year (two points up on Real Madrid) even though Lio Messi missed five games with a couple different injuries.

While Messi sat out Barca’s last UCL match against Inter (a game they still won, 2-1, away), he seems to be fit going forward. Yet Barca trail Man City and Liverpool by a not-insignificant margin in the latest Champions League title odds.

2020 Champions League Title Odds

Barca have an easier Round of 16 draw than the English sides, facing upstart Italian squad Napoli, whereas City meets Real Madrid and Liverpool tangles with Atletico. Napoli sits outside the top-20 teams in FiveThirtyEight’s Global Club Soccer Rankings. Real and Atletico are fifth and seventh, respectively.

If Barcelona advance and one of Man City or Liverpool exit, the Catalans’ odds will be more than twice as short as they are now. Having a +550 ticket on Barcelona should put you in a solid position entering the quarterfinals.

3. Red Sox +2000 to Win the 2020 World Series

The 2019 season was one of epic disappointment for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a dominant, World Series-winning 2018, Boston was the early chalk to win the 2019 World Series. Instead, they went 84-78, finished third in the AL East, and missed the playoffs.

Now they sit at a distant +2000 in the odds to win the 2020 World Series.

Top-Ten 2020 World Series Favorites

With the favored Yankees acquiring Gerrit Cole and the Rays still boasting an analytical-darling of a roster, the Bo-Sox certainly have an uphill climb in the top-heavy division.

But this is mostly the same roster that was, far and away, the best team in baseball just two years ago. The starting rotation has a great chance to bounce back, led by Chris Sale, David Price, and Eduardo Rodriguez. If they can shore up the bullpen – and they certainly have the money to do so – they will be close behind the Yankees on paper.

The current odds give the Yankees a 25% chance to win the 2020 World Series and Boston just a 3.8% chance. Even if Boston doesn’t make any major additions before Opening Day, the gap between these teams is not that big.

2. San Diego State to Win 2020 March Madness Title at +4000

SDSU is still at +4000 odds to win March Madness, which represents solid value. The team is as short as +2500 at other sportsbooks.

The college basketball landscape is wide open this year. No team (or even handful of teams) is head and shoulders above the rest. The Aztecs are currently 13-0 straight-up (8-4 against the spread) with three wins over top-50 KenPom teams. They are projected to be favored by at least four points in 13 of their final 16 games. They’re only projected to be underdogs once (at Utah State).

After starting the year unranked (and rated 97th by KenPom), they are now 13th in the AP Poll and 20th at KenPom. They have climbed as high as sixth in the Torvik ratings. Their top-four scorers are all juniors or seniors. In short, this team is very good, extremely experienced, and likely to have a gaudy win/loss record at the end of the year

Teams that made the biggest moves from my preseason ratings to Christmas over the past 9 years and how they finished. (Also, it's useful to continue weighting preseason ratings this time of year.) pic.twitter.com/ik1zphnspM

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) December 24, 2019

As Rob Dauster put it on his College Basketball Talk podcast, San Diego State could be this year’s version of 2013-14 Wichita State. Led by Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers ran roughshod through a light non-con schedule and mediocre Missouri Valley, running up a 34-0 record before March Madness. The selection committee really had no choice but to give them a #1 seed.

If SDSU continues to play like it has so far – and there’s no hint of a drop off – it will land no lower than the #2 seed line come March Madness.

Gregg Marshall’s team went on to lose to Kentucky in the Round of 32. So why am I optimistically comparing San Diego State to a team that only won a single tournament game? Because of the hedging opportunities it will create.

If SDSU continues to play like it has so far – and there’s no hint of a drop off – it will land no lower than the #2 seed line come March Madness. Their title odds will be much shorter than +4000 at that point, and you can either stay mounted on your Azteca steed or diversify your NCAA Tournament portfolio.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins to Win the Eastern Conference at +950

Here’s my lukewarm take: the Penguins are not the best team in the NHL, but they’re going to be.

Without Sidney Crosby for most of the year, the Pens have somewhat revamped their style of play. Now a defense-oriented group that is getting solid goaltending from both Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh sits second in the NHL in goal differential (+29) and goals-against average (2.68 GPG).

They are fifth overall in Fenwick (52.64%), first in High-Danger Chances percentage (54.77%), and first in Expected Goals-For percentage (54.75%). The forward group is deeper than most realize, with five different players on pace for 20-goal seasons.

[Pittsburgh] is … first [in the NHL] in High-Danger Chances percentage (54.77%), and first in Expected Goals-For percentage (54.75%).

Now for the best part: Crosby is going to be back. He could return as soon as next week, according to CBS Sports.

I don’t expect the Ewing Theory to be at play here. Pittsburgh has turned into a great team without its captain, and it will be even better when Crosby returns.

They are currently +1600 to win the Stanley Cup, but I likey +950 to win the Eastern Conference better.

2020 Eastern Conference Title Odds

Another first-round matchup with the overachieving Islanders is the most-likely scenario given the current state of affairs in the Metro Division. Last year’s four-game sweep at the hands of NYI was an anomaly. When fully healthy, I see this as the most complete team in the East and one that’s poised for a deep postseason run.