Justin Thomas a -110 Favorite For First Round Lead at PGA Tour Championship

• The Tour Championship tees off Thursday, August 22nd for the FedEx Cup Finale
• Oddsmakers are offering first round leader odds with Justin Thomas the favorite
• Who are the best value picks to lead after 18 holes?

The culmination of the PGA Tour season is finally upon us with the FedEx Cup and the $15 million dollar prize on the line for the top 30 golfers who qualified for the Tour Championship.

This is the inaugural year of the new FedEx Cup Finale format which sees top player Justin Thomas starting the tournament with strokes in front of the others and the golfers ranked 26th-30th beginning a full ten strokes behind the lead, so they’ll be hard pressed to take the hold the edge after 18 holes (more on the format later.)

2019 Tour Championship First Round Leader Odds

*Odds taken 08/21/19. Note: Wagers settled on final finishing positions including starting score.

FedEx Cup Format Explained

Unlike in year’s past, where a golfer could win the Tour Championship – like Tiger Woods last year – but not take home the FedEx Cup, the PGA Tour has attempted to streamline the FedEx Cup Finale so it is absolutely obvious who can win it without having to do confusing numbers crunching.

The field is set.

The #FedExCup will be decided at the @playofffinale. #LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/ZGXs5NYwI7

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 19, 2019

That graphic now shows the starting position for all 30 golfers heading into the tournament at East Lake, based on where they were in the top-30 heading into the playoff finale, making it tougher for those who finished lower, and easier for Justin Thomas, who led the FedEx Cup playoffs by virtue of his victory at the BMW Championship.

That’s why, for example, a stud like Dustin Johnson has what would normally be crazy +8000 odds to be first round leader because he’s starting seven shots behind the leader JT.

Thomas Too Good to Ignore For 1st Round Lead

It’s no fun picking the betting favorite for something, is it? But in this case, giving the guy who won last week’s BMW Championship extra strokes to play with is such a significant advantage. It presents too high a climb to catch JT, especially because he’s already such a strong player in opening rounds. You’d probably be wise to bet on him or save your cash for other bets.

PGA Tour First Round Scoring Leaders

2019 Tour Championship First Round Leader Best Value Picks

1. Brooks Koepka (+500): He starts just three strokes back of Thomas and is a very solid 14th in first round scoring this year. He’s always a threat at big tournaments throughout and this is no exception. Since April his worst score after 18 holes was a 71 (span of 12 events)
2. Rory McIlroy (+1800): It’ll be tough to close a five shot gap, but if there’s anyone who could do it, it’s Rory. He was the 2016 champion on this golf course and has also finished in a tie for second. In last six events, he has fired in the 60’s in five occasions on day one.
3. Jon Rahm (+3300): Last seven times teeing it up Rahm has been on fire, with nothing worse than a T-11th showing (five top-5 finishes including one victory). He leads first round scoring average on tour this season so he potentially has the firepower to close six shot gap on JT.