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2021 Valspar Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Apr 27, 2021 · 7:00 AM PDT

Sungjae Im admires a tee shot
Sungjae Im, of South Korea, hits his ball down the second fairway during the final round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament in Hilton Head Island, S.C., Sunday, April 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
  • The Valspar Championship tees off Thursday (April 29th) at the Copperhead Course, at Innisbrook Golf Resort, in Palm Harbor, Florida
  • Sungjae Im has three straight top-20 finishes at Florida courses, and finished 4th at this event in 2019
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

The PGA Tour returns to Florida this week for the Valspar Championship, aka the Paul Casey Open. The Englishman has won the event each of the last two times it was contested, and will be looking to become the first player to win a tournament three straight times since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic in ’09, ’10 and ’11.

Casey will face some stiff competition this week as this year’s field is much stronger than in previous years. The Copperhead Course, at Innisbrook Golf Resort, will welcome both world number one Dustin Johnson and world number two Justin Thomas, as well as five additional top-20 players. That list includes Sungjae Im, and the South Korean will be the first target on our betting  card.

2021 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
 Sungjae Im +3300 +320 +155
 Gary Woodland +8000 +650 +275
Lanto Griffin +13000 +1000 + 490
Sam Horsfield +15000 +1100 + 500

Odds as of  April 26th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Im Excels In Florida

For most of the 2021 season, Im’s driving and putting have been lights out, but his iron play has held him back. Well, good news Sungjae fans: His irons were ultra precise in his last solo start at the RBC Heritage. Im gained 3.5 strokes on approach, the most he’s gained since the Tournament of Champions in January, to go along with 2.5 strokes gained off the tee and another 2.2 strokes gained on the greens.

The elite tee-to-green numbers didn’t translate to a top-tier finish, but he did post a 13th place result, which gives him three straight top-17 finishes at Florida courses. Im finished 4th in his lone appearance at the Valspar in 2019 and his only Tour victory came at the Honda Classic in 2020, another Florida track.

Copperhead demands precision both off the tee and on approach, and the way Im struck the ball at Harbour Town, he’s an absolute steal in the outright market at +3300.

Pick: Sungjae Im to Win Outright(+3300)

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Woodland Back In Form

Our next target is Gary Woodland, who’s flashed some strong form recently after a shaky start to the 2021 season. Woodland has gained strokes with his ball striking in back-to-back measured events, and finished 6th at Valero prior to a 40th place result at the Masters.

He’s a former champion of this event, and tends to perform well at tight, short courses like Copperhead, despite being categorized as a Bomber. He has multiple high end finishes at the Honda Classic, another tight Florida track, and won a US Open at Pebble Beach, which is one of the shorter Par 72 courses on Tour.

He’s gained strokes on approach in five of his past seven measured tournaments, and if he can sustain the strong ball striking and just be average on the greens, a top-10 result is well within his range of outcomes.

Pick: Gary Woodland Top-10 Finish (+650)

Lanto Shown No Love

Our next target is Lanto Griffin, who is being shown no love by online sportsbooks. Griffin is 130-1 to win and +490 to finish inside the top-20, despite having played very well this season.

Griffin ranks top-15 in this field in both strokes gained approach and putting over the past 36 rounds, and has finished 22nd, 21st and 35th in three Florida starts this year. He’s 14th in proximity from 175-200 yards over that same time frame, and 12th in approach shots from 200+ yards. Those proximity stats are significant because those two ranges are where the majority of approach shots come from at the Copperhead course.

Griffin has racked up seven top-20 finishes over the last eight months, and if you exclude his two trips to the Masters, he’s finished 35th or better in 11 of his last 16 tournaments.

Pick: Lanto Griffin Top-20 Finish (+490)

Horsfield Worth a Wager

Last but not least is Sam Horsfield. The 24-year-old Englishman doesn’t have a ton of experience playing in North America, but has been on fire on the European Tour. He has finishes of 4th, 15th, 3rd and 8th in four Euro starts in 2021, and has failed to break 70 just three times in 16 competitive 2021 rounds.

He won twice in 2020 and his current outright (+15000) and top-20 odds (+500) are not reflective of his world ranking (79th).

Pick: Sam Horsfield Top-20 Finish (+500)

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