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2021 Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated May 10, 2021 · 5:48 PM PDT

Joaquin Niemann strikes an iron
Joaquin Niemann, of Chile, watches his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the Valspar Championship golf tournament, Sunday, May 2, 2021, in Palm Harbor, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • The Wells Fargo Championship tees off Thursday (May 6th) at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Joaquin Niemann has gained at least 1.2 strokes ball striking in 10 of his past 11 measured events
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

10 of the top-15 golfers in the world are headed to Charlotte, North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

This is one of the most demanding courses of the tee that players will see all season on the PGA Tour, with eight Par 4s measuring over 450 yards, two of which come in north of 500 yards. Length and accuracy off the tee are at a premium at this track, making strokes gained off the tee and driving distance two of the biggest factors to look at when filling out our betting card. One player who checks the box in both statistics is Joaquin Niemann, who is fresh off an 8th place finish last week at the Valspar.

2021 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Joaquin Niemann +3600 +320 +150
Jason Day +6000 +500 +225
Keegan Bradley +7000 +550 +250
Joel Dahmen +13000 +1100 +500

Odds as of  May 3rd at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Joaquin the Dream

When it comes to demanding off the tee courses like Quail Hollow, few players have the chops to put themselves in better position than Niemann. The 22-year-old has gained strokes ball striking in 10 of his past 11 measured events, and last week was the first time he didn’t gain strokes off the tee in his past 16 starts.

Zooming out to the past 50 rounds, Niemann ranks eighth in this field in driving distance, and ninth in strokes gained off the tee. He’s gained on approach in four straight measured events, while his putting, which was once considered a weakness, is on fire. He’s gained 12.5 strokes on the greens over his past three measured tournaments, which is fifth best in this field over that stretch.

Pick: Joaquin Niemann to Win Outright (+3600)

Day Dominates Quail Hollow

Our next target is Jason Day, who absolutely loves this track. The Aussie has finished inside the top-25 in each of his past three visits, including a win here in 2018, and a 9th place finish in 2017 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship.

Always make sure to shop around for the best price because Day’s odds vary wildly this week. He’s as short as 40-1 at some online sportsbooks, but at others, can be found at +6000. I don’t know about you, but I’ll never turn down an extra 20 points.

As for Day’s game, prior to a missed cut at the Masters, he finished inside he top-35 in four straight starts, flashing impressive ball striking in the process. He gained 7 strokes ball striking at the Players, and gained off the tee at the API, WGC at the Concession and AT&T Prom-Am, the ladder two resulting in a pair of top-18 finishes.

The only thing that stopped him from a top tier finish at Sawgrass was his putting, as he lost 7.7 strokes on the green. That was his single worst putting performance since 2010, and we should expect his traditionally strong short game to return this week.

Pick: Jason Day Top-10 Finish (+500)

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Bradley On Fire

Keegan Bradley narrowly missed winning for the first time since 2018 last week at the Valspar, and his recent form is too good to stop backing now. Bradley gained a ridiculous 12.9 strokes tee-2-green at Copperhead, including 6.1 strokes on approach. He’s gained with his irons in 17 straight tournaments, and ranks 18th in strokes gained off the tee over his past 50 rounds.

He ranks first in the field in approach shots between 175-200 yards, and 13th in proximity from 200+ yards. Those two ranges are where the majority of approach shots will come from this week, so expect another high finish for Bradley.

Pick: Keegan Bradley Top-10 Finish (+550)

Don’t Sleep On Dahmen

Last but not least, is Joel Dahmen. He’s only one start removed from his first PGA Tour victory, and has played exceptionally at Quail Hollow recently.

Dahmen finished second in 2019, and 16th in 2018, and while he’s definitely not considered a bomber, he tends to play long, tough tracks very well. He’s gained strokes off the tee in six straight measured events, and ranks 37th in this field in strokes gained off the tee over his past 50 rounds.

Pick: Joel Dahmen Top-20 Finish (+500)

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