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Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks for Olympic Men’s Golf Tournament

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jul 27, 2021 · 7:52 PM PDT

Corey Conners tee shot
Canada's Corey Conners watches his tee shot on the first hole during a practice round of the men's golf event at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Tuesday, July 27, 2021, at the Kasumigaseki Country Club in Kawagoe, Japan, (AP Photo/Matt York)
  • The Olympic Men’s Golf Tournament tees off Thursday, July 29th (Wednesday in North America) at the Kasumigaseki Country Club, in Tokyo, Japan
  • Corey Conners ranks second in this field in ball striking, and third in tee-to-green play over the past 50 rounds
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets

There’s no PGA Tour action this week to wager on, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get your golf betting fix. Olympic golf is back for the second straight games (after a 112-year hiatus), and some of the best players in the world are set to tee off on Thursday, July 29th (Wednesday in North America) at the Kasumigaseki Country Club.

This field is extremely top heavy, as evident by the ridiculously short odds of the top-eight contenders, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found. Canadian Corey Conners checks in with an appealing +2800 price tag, fresh off a strong showing at the recent British Open.

2021 Olympic Men’s Golf Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Corey Conners +2800 +200 -165
Thomas Pieters +7000 +350 +140
Mito Pereira +10000 +600 +190
Henrik Norlander +13000 +700 +200
Anirban Lahiri +25000 +1200 +350

Odds as of July 27th at DraftKings.

Conners Crushes Tee-to-Green

The Canadian posted a 15th place finish at Royal St. Georges, his third top-17 result in his past four Majors. He was in contention at the 2021 Masters and the Players Championship, finishing T8 or better in both, and posted another top-10 at Augusta back in November. Needless to say, he plays his best golf in the most difficult fields.

Conners is a tee-to-green stud, and ranks near the top of this field in most key statistical categories. He ranks fifth off-the-tee, and third in tee-to-green play over the past 50 rounds, and only Collin Morikawa ranks higher in strokes gained approach.

Not much is known about this course, other than it’s a Tom Fazio redesign and it features incredibly large greens, so it makes sense to lean on ball striking and par-4 scoring (since there are 11 of those on the course).

Corey Conners Stats – Last 50 Rounds

T2G BS OTT BS P
3 2 5 2 27

In addition to ranking second in ball striking, Conners checks in at number three in overall strokes gained on par-4’s, including third in par-4 efficiency from 400-450 yards, and 450-500 yards.

As always, the one thing that could hold the Canadian back is his putting, but he isn’t too far removed from a run of five straight events where he was positive on the greens. If he can channel some of that form, he’ll have a great chance at capturing gold.

Pick: Corey Conners (+2800)

Pieters Is Pure Value

Our next target is Thomas Pieters, who is a value in both the outright and top-10 markets. Pieters is priced as short as 50-1 at some online sportsbooks, but can be found at 70-1 if you shop around. Like Conners, he excels in the ball striking department, ranking 11th in strokes gained approach over the past 50 rounds, and has five worldwide victories on his resume.

In addition to the wins, he’s posted multiple top-6 finishes at Majors, and came fourth at the 2016 Rio Games. He’s an incredibly streak player, but when his game is on, he’s one of the best pure scorers in the field. If this track plays easy, Pieters is likely to find himself on the first page of the leaderboard.

Pick: Thomas Pieters Top-10 (+350)

Top-20 Value Picks

  1. Mito Pereira (+190): Won two Korn Ferry Tour events in June, and has posted back-to-back top-6 results on the PGA Tour. Last week at the 3M Open, he gained 4.3 strokes ball striking and the week before he was +8.3 in that category at the Barbasol Championship.
  2. Henrik Norlander (+200): Like Pereira, he enters this week in fine form having made five consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. Last time out at the Barbasol he gained 7.6 strokes on approach, the second best mark in the field, while pouring in 22 birdies and an eagle.
  3. Anirban Lahiri (+350): Finished third at the Barbasol two weeks ago, gaining 5.4 strokes tee-to-green and another 5.9 shots on the greens. It was the first time in nearly three years he’s fired four consecutive rounds in the 60’s, and it led to his fourth top-11 finish of the season. Lahiri’s game struggled after battling COVID in April, but it appears to be back on track just in time for the Olympics.
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