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RBC Heritage Props: See Odds on First Round Leader, Winning Margin and More

Patrick Reed has vaulted to No. 6 in the world rankings after six top-8 finishes during the 2020 season. Photo by Peetlesnumber1 (Wiki Commons).
  • The RBC Heritage tees off Thursday, June 18th from Harbour Town GL in Hilton Head, South Carolina
  • Patrick Reed is coming off a seventh place finish at Colonial and profiles as a strong First Round leader bet
  • See odds and predictions for our favorite RBC Heritage props in the story below

Fresh off a thrilling week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the PGA Tour heads east to Hilton Head, South Carolina Thursday for the RBC Heritage.

Seven of the top-10 players in the world will tee it up at Harbour Town golf links, including world no. 6 Patrick Reed, who profiles as an excellent first round leader bet.

RBC Heritage Prop#1: First Round Leader

Golfer Odds Tee Time (EST)
Rory McIlroy +2000 7:40 am
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 12:43 pm
Justin Thomas +2800 1:05 pm
Jon Rahm +3300 1:05 pm
Xander Schauffele +3300 8:13 am
Webb Simpson +4000 12:43 pm
Colin Morikawa +4000 8:02 am
Patrick Reed +4000 7:29 am 
Daniel Berger +4500 7:29 am
Jordan Spieth +4500 7:18 am

Odds taken June 16th

Reed tees off early Thursday morning, when the course will be playing its softest. A bit of rain is in the forecast overnight Wednesday, meaning the usually tricky Harbour Town greens will be especially receptive early in the day. That certainly bodes for well for Reed, who is one of the premier iron players and putters on Tour.

Patrick Reed Offers Plenty of Value

Reed has gained strokes on approach in each of his last six tournaments, and every measured event but four since the 2019 Masters. He can also get insanely hot with the putter, gaining 7.1 strokes on the green last week and 21.4 over his last three tournaments.

He shot 68 or better in all four rounds at Colonial, including a blistering 63 on Saturday. He’s now shot 63 twice in his last 10 competitive rounds and he excels in par-4 scoring, which will be paramount this week.

Harbour Town is a par-71 layout that features 11 par-4’s. Over the past 50 rounds, Reed ranks first in the field in par-4 scoring, and third in birdie or better percentage. He checks all the boxes we need out of a first round leader and his price tag is very favorable at +4000.

Pick: Reed (+4000)

RBC Heritage First Round Leader Value Bets

  1. Kevin Kisner (+6000): He has an even earlier tee time than Reed (7:18 am) and has a phenomenal track record at Harbour Town. He’s made the cut in six straight appearances and finished second in 2015. He fired four consecutive rounds in the 60’s last week and gained 5.4 strokes tee-to-green.
  2. Rory Sabbatini (+8000): He doesn’t have the benefit of an early tee time, but his game was hot fire last week. He gained 2.5 strokes on approach and another 5.5 strokes on the green which will serve him here if he can carry over the momentum. Like Kisner he has excellent course history, finishing 10th or better four times in his last nine appearances.

RBC Heritage Prop#2: Winning Margin

Winning Margin Odds
1 Stoke +250
2 Stokes +350
3 Stokes +550
4 Stokes or More +275
After a Playoff +400

The next prop we’re going to explore is the final winning margin. Over the past decade, this tournament has been decided by more than a stroke just twice. Three times the winning margin has been a single stroke, and five times the tournament has needed a playoff.

Much like last week’s event that needed extra holes, the strength of this field is going to make it nearly impossible for anyone to run away with the title. The chances this tournament is decided on either the 72nd hole or in a playoff are extremely high. I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting either outcome, but why not shoot for the bigger payout and bet “After a Playoff” at +400.

Pick: After a Playoff (+400)

RBC Heritage Prop#3: Top Canadian Player

Winning Margin Odds
Adam Hadwin +163
Corey Conners +175
Mackenzie Hughes +400
David Hearn +1100
Roger Sloan +1100
Michael Gligic +2200

Most people might gravitate towards Corey Conners based on his performance last week, but he has an awful track record at Harbour Town. He’s 0-for-3 in cuts made, and has lost a combined 12.4 strokes total over six rounds. His off-the-tee play is one of his biggest strengths and it’s completely negated due to the unique set up of this course. Harbour Town puts a big emphasis on around the green play and putting, two stats Conners ranks 137th and 144th respectively in over the past 50 rounds.

Adam Hadwin on the other hand, is a much different story. He’s 19th in this field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained putting and 37th in strokes gained short game. He’s 3-for-4 in cuts made, and is fresh off his best ball striking performance since the opening two events of the 2020 season. He gained 2.6 strokes on approach at Colonial and  piled up 17 birdies and an eagle during his four rounds.

Pick: Adam Hadwin (+163)

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