Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds & Betting Preview: McKinzie Favored in Wide-Open Field

• The $6 Million Breeders’ Cup Classic will be run on Saturday at Santa Anita
• Whitney Stakes winner McKinzie is the favorite
• Where can we find value betting the last big American race in 2019?

Since the Breeders’ Cup began in 1984 the best of the best have gone at it in the feature event, the Classic. However, for a second straight year the field in 2019 is more good than great, and McKinzie, the deserving favorite, is not a monster. Does that mean we can find a good upset? Let’s try.

This year’s Cup is being held in Southern California at Santa Anita Park. The big race will be run at a-mile-and-a-quarter on the main track. A different jockey has won the Classic in each of the past seven years.

Below are the latest Breeders’ Cup Classic odds and with five horses all paying under 10-1 odds, there is certainly value present.

Odds to Win 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Odds taken October 28, 2019.

The Favorite: McKinzie

With seven wins in 13-lifetime starts, McKinzie is good. He has finished first or second on 12 occasions. However, this year he is two for six (with four seconds) and that is why he is beatable. It actually happens rather frequently.

On the flip side, in a field that is not nearly as consistent, and has no monster, it is a strong bet that McKinzie will be in the mix, and hence he is the favorite. He won the Alysheba Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs, and the Whitney Stakes in August at Saratoga.

He has won twice during his career at Santa Anita, though he finished second on September 28 in the Awesome Again Stakes, beaten by Mongolian Groom who was 25/1 in the race.

There is some question about whether this distance is a bit longer than McKinzie ideally wants, but the chances he is in the mix turning for home are strong.

Top Contenders: Code of Honor, Vino Rosso, Elate, Yoshida

Code of Honor is a three-year-old who seems to be getting better and better. After finishing third (placed second when Maximum Security was disqualified) at the Kentucky Derby, he took two months off.

Code of Honor has returned to win three straight races, The Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, Travers Stakes at Saratoga, and Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont (placed first after Vino Rosso was DQ’ed). Can he beat older horses? His only try saw Vino Rosso get to the wire just in front of him.

Vino Rosso won his only career race at Santa Anita, the Gold Cup in May. He finished third at the Whitney behind McKinzie and Yoshida, and was disqualified against Code of Honor in his last race.

While Vino Rosso consistently runs against strong competition, when he gets the top horses he usually settles for a second, third or fourth-place finish.

Five-year-old Elate impressively won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in 2017, but since then has mostly run in second-tier races, not the top events available. In each of the last two years she has finished second at the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga.

As the favorite Elate finished second in September’s Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. We love her talent, but she hasn’t been dominant against girls, and now she races against guys for the first time.

Yoshida has not won in five starts this year, but has faced the best competition on the planet. After sixth-placed finishes at the Pegasus World Cup Turf, Dubai World Cup, and Stephen Foster, he has returned to be the runner up at the Whitney, and finished third at the Woodward Stakes.

He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, and perhaps with a field full of question marks this is the right time to back him.

Longshots: Higher Power and Mongolian Groom

Trainer John Sadler won the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year with Accelerate, and now has an interesting option with the late-maturing Higher Power.

Aside from running in last year’s Rebel Stakes, a Kentucky Derby prep race, over Higher Power’s first nine starts nothing about his training or races screamed champion.

Ambitiously placed, he was fifth in May’s Gold Cup at Santa Anita. After winning a minor race, and finishing second in another, Higher Power provided a shock at Del Mar’s signature race, the Pacific Classic in August.

He returned to the track and was the second favorite behind McKinzie in the Awesome Again Stakes. It didn’t go all that well for either of them.

Mongolian Groom took the Awesome Again, after finishing fifth in the Woodward Stakes, and third in the Pacific Classic. He has run eight times since the start of April, a shockingly high number in this day and age.

The Bet: Code of Honor

This is a pretty wide-open race, but aside from McKinzie, who is always good but often not great, Code of Honor is the most consistent. His Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has won nine Breeders’ Cup races, but never the Classic. His jockey, Hall of Famer John Velazquez has won 16 Breeders’ Cup events, but never the Classic. This might be the year.