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Belmont Stakes Odds Open with Charlatan & Tiz The Law Favored at 2-1

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 12, 2021 · 1:32 PM PST

Belmont Park sign
After skipping the Preakness Stakes following a disappointing third-place finish at the Kentucky Derby, Tactus has emerged as the favorite to win the 2019 Belmont Stakes. Photo by Naoki Nakashima [Flickr].
  • The Belmont Stakes will be the first Triple Crown race run in 2020 on June 20
  • Traditionally the third race in the sequence, The Belmont will be shortened too
  • Kentucky Derby favorites Charlatan and Tiz The Law are among the early Belmont chalk

The Belmont Stakes has informally been known as The Test of the Champion since it was expanded to a-mile-and-a-half in 1926. What makes it so difficult is two-fold. First, the distance is longer than any of the competitors have ever run, and second it is the third challenging race in five weeks (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes). In 2020, the Belmont is neither that long nor the last race in the series.

With COVID-19 pushing the Kentucky Derby to September, and Preakness to October, instead of competing with November’s Breeders Cup, New York racing officials opted to run the Belmont in June, and do so at a-mile-and-an-eighth, which essentially makes it a prep race for the Derby. Interestingly, at Belmont Park, that means it is only a one-turn race, which should benefit horses with early speed.

It is not yet clear if all the major Kentucky Derby contenders will opt to compete in the Belmont since the Santa Anita Derby, a traditional Kentucky Derby prep, is scheduled for June 6. That said, many top three-year-olds will give it a go, and the updated Belmont Stakes odds are very much worth taking a long look at and analyzing.

2020 Belmont Stakes Odds

Horse Odds
Charlatan +200
Tiz The Law +200
Nadal +325
Dr Post +1600
Honor A.P +1800
Sole Volante +1800
Wells Bayou +2200
Basin +2500
Farmington Road +2500
Gouverneur Morris +2500
Max Player +2500
Modernist +3300

Odds taken May 19

Favorites: Charlatan & Tiz The Law

When the Kentucky Derby was not run on the first Saturday in May, the Arkansas Derby stepped in and ran not one but two divisions of the race since so many three-year-olds wanted in. Charlatan was a huge favorite in the first leg and he did not disappoint.

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It is worth noting that Charlatan ran in the much weaker of the two Arkansas Derby fields, and while he is three for three with the trio all being routes, his level of competition has been weak. That said, Bob Baffert is the most successful trainer of this generation and so far everything has gone according to plan.

While it is likely Charlatan will run in the Belmont, New York-bred Tiz the Law will be in the gate barring an injury. Trainer Barclay Tagg announced Tiz the Law would be in the Belmont a day or two before we even knew the date of the race (he clearly was given a heads up). A winner of four out of five races, Tiz the Law’s Florida Derby in late March was spot on.

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He is two for two this year winning both key preps in Florida, and now returns home to the Big Apple. Tagg and this ownership group, Sackatoga Stable, won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Funny Cide.

Top Contender: Nadal

At this stage in the game, there are four major Kentucky Derby contenders: Charlatan, Tiz The Law, Nadal and Authentic. However, Authentic and upset special Honor A.P are planning to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s expected that Authentic will not be running in the Belmont. That makes Nadal a very reasonable top contender at The Belmont. In fact, his win in the second division of the Arkansas Derby may not have been as impressive, but came against a better field than Charlatan’s.

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Also trained by Baffert, Nadal is four for four with two wins in Arkansas and two in California. It is a bit confounding why he isn’t priced roughly the same as Charlatan and Tiz the Law. They have accomplished roughly the same amount.

Longshot: Modernist

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott did not win the Kentucky Derby until he was 65 years old. That came last year when longshot Country House was declared the winner after Maximum Security was disqualified. Now Mott has Modernist, who at one time seemed as unlikely as Country House.

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Modernist was 12/1 when he won the second division of the Risen Star Stakes, and backed it up with a solid third in the Louisiana Derby. He did so despite an outside draw, a wide trip, and traffic. Though just two for five in his career, Modernist is an outsider that offers value.

The Bet: Nadal

Even if you prefer Charlatan and Tiz the Law, those horses need to win more than a third of the time in order to provide betting value, while if Nadal theoretically prospers a quarter of the time he makes for a good bet at 13/4. The race is still a month away and three-year-old horses develop a lot as time moves along. Nadal’s daddy Blame won the Breeders Cup Classic and there is reason to believe he’ll be right in the mix when they head for home at Belmont Park

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