Haskell Invitational Odds & Preview: Authentic, Dr Post & Ny Traffic Top Contenders

• Saturday’s Haskell Invitational is both a Kentucky Derby qualification event and a Win and You’re In contest for the Breeders Cup Classic
• Among the Run for the Roses favorites, Authentic looks to bounce back on his way to Churchill Downs
• Betting on the Haskell is all about assessing the relative value of Authentic and his competition

While Saratoga and Del Mar take horse racing’s center stage for most of the summer, the Jersey Shore is the place to be once a year. There will be extremely limited attendance this year for the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park because of COVID-19, a race won in recent runnings by Eclipse Award winners Maximum Security and American Pharoah.

Usually, the Haskell along with Saratoga’s Travers Stakes, and Del Mar’s Pacific Classic are the bridge for the best three-year-olds between the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup. This year, with the Kentucky Derby pushed back to September, it is both a prep race for the Run for the Roses and a stepping stone to the Cup.

While favorites Authentic and Dr. Post, along with Ete Indien and Ny Traffic are likely to make the field in Louisville regardless of how well they run Saturday at Monmouth Park, others need qualifying points to have a chance in the Kentucky Derby. The winner will also have expenses paid and be eligible to run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Let’s look at the field for the Haskell, analyze the group, and see what sort of bet makes the most sense.

2020 Haskell Invitational Stakes Odds

Odds taken Jul 14

The horses will go one-mile-and-an-eighth on the main track with the purse of $1 million with the winner earning $600,000. Post time is scheduled for 5:45 pm EST. The race will be televised by NBC.

The Favorite

With three wins in four career starts, Authentic has been among the Kentucky Derby favorites most of the year. He won his debut in November, picked up a graded stakes victory in January, and cemented his spot as a top tier Derby horse winning the San Felipe Stakes in March. His only loss came against fellow Derby favorite Honor A.P. in last month’s Santa Anita Derby.

Authentic is trained by eight-time Haskell winner Bob Baffert. He has also conditioned four horses who finished second in the event. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will ride Authentic, after being on Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby.

Contenders

Dr Post had never faced top competition when he was challenged in the Belmont Stakes. He responded with a strong runner up showing.

Losing to Tiz The Law, the only horse more widely supported for the Kentucky Derby than Authentic and Honor A.P. is pretty strong. He made a big move late in that race, an indication he likes longer distances. While this race is run at the same distance as the Belmont Stakes, it will feel more like a true route race since it is being contested around two turns, as opposed to the one turn Belmont.

While Ny Traffic doesn’t win a lot, he is a pro’s pro. In three straight races against top competition, he has finished second twice and third once. Off since late May’s Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs, could this be the day he gets the lead early and never gives it up?

While Ny Traffic’s opponents today are top-notch, he won’t be intimidated having run into Maxfield last time out and been competitive against the best of the best three-year-olds.

Longshot

Ete Indien has just one victory this year but has been in the mix against solid horses. It was disappointing he finished fourth in a strong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in June, but his third-place finish in March’s Florida Derby was pretty good, and a repeat of his win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes would make him a strong contender in The Haskell.

With three wins in seven career races, Ete Indien needs to run back to one of his top efforts to compete today, but it clearly is in him.

Sonneman is taking a significant step up class, but Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has made leaps like this before and won big races. Sonneman won an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park in April and finished second in a bizarre two-horse match-race stakes race at Belmont Park last month.

The Bet

The odds in this race reflect reality. Authentic is a deserving favorite, and Dr Post is a serious challenger. If Ny Traffic is allowed to take it easy for the first half of the race and still have the lead, he may have a lot left in the tank, but that isn’t terribly likely. Anybody else would be a significant upset. While Authentic is the most likely winner, Dr Post at a way better price is the play. He has improved in each race that he has run and was very impressive in the Belmont Stakes.

Pick: Dr Post (+550)