Belmont Park Ogden Phipps Stakes Odds and Betting Preview
- The Ogden Phipps is a Breeders Cup Win and You’re in race
- Grade 1 winners Ollie’s Candy and She’s a Julie seek their first win of 2020
- A short but competitive field creates value if you can pick the winner
Until last week Belmont Park was closed due to COVID-19. Racing resumed and Vekoma captured the first grade 1 race of the year in New York, the Carter Handicap. This Saturday brings another grade 1, the Ogden Phipps for fillies and mares going a-mile-and-a-sixteenth.
The winner of The Ogden Phipps will receive an automatic berth into the fall’s Breeders Cup Distaff. While the invite is nice, this group of six needs meaningful wins. Among the favorites, Ollie’s Candy has just one victory in her last nine races, and She’s a Julie has gone more than a year without seeing the winner’s circle.
There seems to be little chance of rain on Saturday creating ideal racing conditions. Let’s look at the field and see where we can find value.
2020 Ogden Phipps Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Point of Honor | +200 |
| Ollie’s Candy | +250 |
| She’s a Julie | +500 |
| Pink Sands | +400 |
| Blamed | +800 |
| Golden Award | +1000 |
All odds taken June 11
Favorite
Point of Honor has only three wins in eight career starts and hasn’t crossed the finish line first since Preakness Weekend last year (13 months ago). That said, she ran against Ollie’s Candy in the Apple Blossom and both asserted themselves well.
Point of Honor was really coming late in that race, and she is always close. She has hit the board in seven of eight career races.
Contenders
Remember when the Kentucky Derby was run in May? Like every year for a century prior to 2020? The last time the Run for the Roses was contested Maximum Security was disqualified and Country House declared the winner. That weekend is the last time She’s a Julie won. That victory was in the La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs. It was the second straight impressive victory for her after running away with Oaklawn Park’s Bayakoa Stakes.
A horse who wins the Bayakoa and La Troienne is impressive. But that was more than a year ago. Since then She’s a Julie has failed to finish first or second in five tries. Her lone race this year, the Shawnee Stakes, resulted in a sixth-place finish despite odds of 2/1. She has the class and maybe needed to get a race under her belt after seven months off?
Ollie’s Candy has consistently faced stiff competition. Her big breakthrough came in July at Del Mar’s Clement L. Hirsch Stakes when she gutted out a grade one victory.
Since then she has finished third twice, was fourth in the Breeders Cup Distaff, and second last time out in her first-ever race outside the Golden State. With California racing closed because of the virus, she battled a terrific field in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park to a second-place finish. Though she earns checks against top opposition, you have to go back to June 16, 2018 to find another victory in her resume aside from the Hirsch.
Longshot
Golden Award took some time to mature but was running well most of last summer including a win at Saratoga in the Shuvee Stakes over She’s a Julie.
She’s never beaten grade one or two competition, but it is hard to deny how well she is running. She closed last year with a grade three win in New York and opened this year with a second-place performance in a grade three in Florida. She’s viable if not likely.
Analysis
This is a very competitive field with several classy horses. In the end though, second place only fattens the owner’s wallet or someone betting to place. Golden Award has consistently improved and while she is stepping up in class, we believe she is ready. Value is present and we’ll take our shot.
Pick: Golden Award (+1000)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
