Gulfstream Park Oaks Odds & Betting Preview: Tonalist’s Shape +200 Favorite

• The Gulfstream Park Oaks is one of seven stakes races at the Florida track on Saturday
• Unbeaten Tonalist’s Shape is the surprisingly tepid morning line favorite
• What are our best betting options in the Gulfstream Park Oaks?

Under normal circumstances, the Gulfstream Park Oaks would be the final prep race for many horses going after the Triple Tiara, the Triple Crown for females. The Tiara includes the Kentucky Oaks, Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, and Mother Goose Stakes. However, with the schedule changed because of coronavirus, and the Kentucky Oaks now slated for September, it is merely a strong race for three-year-old girls.

On paper Tonalist’s Shape should be a heavy favorite. She is five for five in her life, and easily beat Spice is Nice, the second choice in this race. However, these are lightly raced ladies, and several interesting options are on the board.

Let’s look at the odds and consider our betting option.

2020 Gulfstream Park Oaks Odds

Odds taken Mar. 27

Favorite: Tonalist’s Shape

Owned in part by UCLA basketball coach Mick Cronin, the son of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist is five for five in her career with each win rather easily. While the final margin says one and a quarter lengths, watch the replay of her most recent victory, the Davona Dale Stakes. She really wasn’t tested by second place finisher Spice is Nice, the show horse Dream Marie, or anybody else.

You can argue for a different horse based on something in their form, a reason they might improve, racing conditions or style, but there is nothing to knock with Tonalist’s Shape. She is perfect thus far and has navigated every challenge sent her way.

Contenders: Spice Is Nice, Lake Avenue, and Lucrezia

Spice Is Nice finished second behind Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale, and it was only her second career start. Under the conditioning of top trainer Todd Pletcher, she won her maiden race by 12 lengths.

Young and inexperienced horses take big steps, and she looks like she can improve. Her dad Curlin won the Preakness, Breeders Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup.

Lake Avenue makes her first start outside of New York for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and Godolphin Racing, the stable owned by the ruling party of Dubai. While her last race was a flop, she wrapped up 2019 with a strong win.

Last time out Lake Avenue finished fourth as the favorite in the Busher Invitational. She should show early speed and the addition of rider Joel Rosario may help.

Lucrezia wasn’t anything special in her first three races, two of which were run on the turf, and all three sprints, but her last two races have been strong. Her first career distance race, the Suncoast Stakes in February was a dandy.

There is some question about the level of competition in the Suncast Stakes, but boy was she impressive. Though a sprint race, her win in the Sandpiper to end 2019 was pretty strong too.

Longshot: Swiss Skydiver

She ran third last time out, but the level of competition in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes was very stout. Either first place finisher Finite, or second place British Idiom would be among the favorites today.

Swiss Skydiver has just one win in four starts, but is usually close, and should get a quick tempo to rally behind in this one.

The Bet: Tonalist’s Shape

She has given no reason to doubt her. There are decent arguments for Spice Is Nice (young and improving), Lake Avenue (second race off of a layoff and should be near the lead), Lucrezia (terrific in last two races), and Swiss Skydiver (ran respectably against two very strong horses last time out), but you need theories for each of them. With Tonalist’s Shape you get the most proven horse. At 2/5 we’d be looking for an angle to beat her. At 2/1, sign us up. At this point she has proven to be the best horse and the odds are in no way unfair. She may lose and we might look at some exacta boxes with Swiss Skydiver and Lucrezia, but there is legit value at 2/1 on Tonalist’s Shape.