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Improbable Now Given Second-Best 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 12:11 PM PDT

The Kentucky Derby is today and Improbable is among the favorites. Should you bet on him to win, or look for a longshot?
  • Churchill Downs hosts the 145th Kentucky Derby today
  • Improbable has the second best chance to win according to most sportsbooks
  • Is there value on Improbable, or maybe another contender?

To a degree it seems like trainer Bob Baffert has a monopoly on horse racing this time of year. He has won the Kentucky Derby five times, including assisting with the only two Triple Crown performances of the last four decades. This year he has three of the likely favorites, and with his Game Winner the favorite in most sportsbooks, our Kentucky Derby Odds Tracker shows Baffert’s Improbable as the next most likely winner.

Improbable has a lot going for him, but as you can tell there are many solid candidates.

Let’s take a glance at the latest 2019 Kentucky Derby odds and see who appears to be the best bet.

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds
Game Winner +600
Improbable +600
Roadster +700
Code of Honor +800
Tacitus +800
Maximum Security +900
Vekoma +1400
By My Standards +1600
War of Will +1600
Tax +1800
Win Win Win +1800
Bodexpress +2500
Cutting Humor +2800
Country House +3300
Long Range Toddy +3300
Plus Que Parfait +3300
Spinoff +3300
Gray Magician +5000
Master Fencer +5000

*Odds taken 05/04/19

Improbable

Owned by the China Horse Club, and trained by Baffert, the same connections that won last year’s Triple Crown with Justify, Improbable started his career three-for-three and this year has two hard-earned second place finishes against top notch competition.

He lost to Long Range Toddy by a neck in the Rebel Stakes, and Omaha Beach by a length at the Arkansas Derby. Baffert is taking his blinkers off today, likely meaning he will be off the pace and try to make a winning move around the final turn and into the stretch.

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Contenders Worth Considering

The price on Maximum Security, 9/1, is tempting since he is unbeaten and should be very near the lead at the start of the race. Over the last few days at Churchill Downs being near the front of the pack early on has been the spot to be. Owner’s Gary and Mary West own a large stable of classy horses.

By My Standards has been the hyped up horse for those in Louisville this week. He may have simply needed some time to mature. After starting his career with three losses, though finishing second or third in each, he has won two straight impressively. He crushed overmatched maidens (horses who have never won before) and then shocked the Louisiana Derby at 22/1. His works leading up to the Kentucky Derby were the best in the field.

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