Kentucky Oaks Odds & Betting Preview: Gamine & Swiss Skydiver Clear Favorites

• The Kentucky Oaks is Friday at Churchill Downs
• Both Gamine and Swiss Skydiver may be as fast as the boys this year and could run in the Preakness
• Who provides the best betting value among the top three-year-old fillies?

The Kentucky Oaks is for the girls. Friday the gates will break and a-mile-and-an-eighth later the champion three-year-old filly will be crowned. However, it isn’t crazy to think that this year the Oaks winner might be just as quick as the boys who will run in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Because of COVID-19, the Kentucky Oaks was shifted from May to September. That was crucial for Oaks favorite Gamine, who didn’t debut until March, but has finished ahead of her competition in all four races. Her primary competition, Swiss Skydiver, has won four of her last five races, only falling to Art Collector, who will be among the favorites in Saturday’s Derby.

It is somewhat disappointing neither Oaks favorite is trying their luck in the Run for the Roses against the boys, but whoever wins on Friday very well may take their shot at Tiz the Law, or whoever wins the Derby, in The Preakness Stakes the first Saturday in October.

There are a couple of interesting longshots too. Let’s break down the Kentucky Oaks and see who provides the best value.

2020 Kentucky Oaks Odds

Odds taken August 31

The Kentucky Oaks is scheduled to begin at 5:45 pm EST. Television coverage will be provided by the NBC Sports Network.

The Favorite

There are a couple of things that you can quibble with when it comes to Gamine. However, none of them are related to what we have seen on the track. She has absolutely dominated her four career races. Mostly she has won very easily. Once she was challenged and responded like a champion. You simply aren’t supposed to beat grade one horses the way she did in June.

The criticisms of Gamine are 1) she was disqualified from a strong win at Oaklawn Park in May because of a positive drug test, and 2) her longest career race, at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, was her closest, and now she has to stretch out and run a-mile-and-an-eighth. Gamine has passed all tests thus far, but if you want to be skeptical, so be it.

Top Contender

Swiss Skydiver probably deserves co-favorite status or at least as much discussion as Gamine. While she started her career with just one win in her first four starts, since then she has been outstanding.

From late March until mid-August she has run at five tracks, and three different distances, winning four times, with the lone setback a second-place finish in a field of 13 against boys in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Last time out Swiss Skydiver toyed with grade one horses at Saratoga.

While Swiss Skydiver has not been as thoroughly dominant as Gamine, there are no distance questions, her level of competition has probably been better, and it is a rare day you can bet on her and get any value.

Longshots

It’s not crazy to think this is a two-horse race. Gamine and Swiss Skydiver, one or both, seem ticketed for The Preakness to run against boys and who knows, maybe even the Breeders Cup Classic. That said, the three-year-old filly division is strong, particularly Speech.

In seven career races, Speech has three wins and three seconds. She gave Gamine a race and then some in May at Oaklawn Park, and has finished right behind Swiss Skydiver too. Her victory in July’s Ashland Stakes was likely her best career effort.

Speech will need her best to win on Friday, but the price is right, she’s very talented, and always runs well.

If you are looking for a bomb, Hopeful Growth and Project Whiskey have run against each other in their last two races with each winning one.

If Hopeful Growth builds on that last effort, who knows.

The Bet

While an upset is possible, picking against both Gamine and Swiss Skydiver seems fairly unlikely. Gamine may be a super horse, but Swiss Skydiver has been terrific this year and the odds are surprisingly tempting. She’s the pick and offers significant value

Pick: Swiss Skydiver (+300)

Additional Races at Churchill Downs on September 4

La Troienne Stakes

Can anybody challenge Monomoy Girl in this mile-and-a-sixteenth trek for older females? She has won 11 of 13 career races, has earnings over over $3 million, and has been the favorite in all but two career races. Those two races, both wins, include the 2018 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs where she beat Midnight Bisou.

Monomoy Girls has four wins in five tries at Churchill Downs but both of her losses are at this distance. She has won nine straight races but hasn’t faced top horses in two races this year, her only two races since 2018.

Horologist is coming off an impressive win in a grade three event at Monmouth Park on July 18. Four of her five career wins are in New Jersey.

Vexatious was second to Monomoy Girl in July. She returned to take a grade one race, beating Midnight Bisou, at Saratoga on August 1. At the age of six, her last two races are the best of her career.

Eight Belles Stakes

Four Graces puts a three race winning streak on the line in this grade two event over seven furlongs for fillies. Four Graces is two-for-two at Churchill Downs and four-for-four at seven furlongs. Last time out she beat Sconsin, one of her primary threats on Friday.

Sconsin returned to the track on August 9 and finished third in a stakes race at Ellis Park. The winner that day was Mundaye Call, who looks for a fourth straight win in the Eight Belles. Trained by Brad Cox, Mundaye Call was running good but not great before the seven length victory last time out. She earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for the victory, the top number any horse in this race has achieved.

Edgewood Stakes

Sharing figures to be a sizable favorite in this mile turf challenge for fillies. She had a four race win streak snapped last time out when she traveled to Europe and finished second in the grade one Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The only horse to finish ahead of Sharing at Ascot, Alpine Star returned to run really well against boys in a top race in France. Sharing won last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and her only question is how she recovers from the trans-continental journey.

Walk in Marrakesh followed a defeat against Sharing with a strong second last time out in a grade two event at Keeneland. In Good Spirits was a close fourth against Sharing at 50/1 in May, and ran a solid third at Churchill Downs in a grade three event in June.

Turf Sprint Stakes

Only two horses in this large field of turf sprinters have won graded stakes races. Bound for Nowhere has the only graded win on turf, taking the 2018 Shakertown at Keeneland. He came close to repeating that victory last out in July.

Diamond Oops has limited turf experience but has competed in top tier dirt races and not been embarrassed on the sod.

Trainer Mike Maker sends out veteran Tiger Blood. At one time a cheap claiming horse, Maker has made a career out of upgrading horses particularly on the turf. He is nine-for-twelve at the distance, and just lost to Carotari last time out. Carotari returns in this spot and is stepping up in class.

Alysheba Stakes

A grade two mile-and-a-sixteenth battle for older horses may come down to west coast star McKinzie, and midwest standout By My Standards.

McKinzie has earned nearly $3.5 million and has eight wins in 17 career starts. Since returning from a trip to the Middle East in February, he has a win and a uncharacteristic fifth place finish. McKinzie has three career grade one victories and the connections of trainer Bob Baffert and rider Mike Smith are about as good as it gets.

By My Standards is coming off back-to-back runner up performances against top notch competition. Losing to likely Breeders Cup Classic contenders Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat is not bad at all. Before that he had won three straight. By My Standards has five wins and four seconds in 11 career races.