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Odds Against Kentucky Derby Running on May 2

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Horse Racing News

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 2:30 PM PDT

Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby has never been forced to cancel or postpone a race, but as the coronavirus crisis widens, this year's race could be at risk. Photo by Abbie Myers (Wikipedia)
  • The widening COVID-19 outbreak has put the Kentucky Derby at risk of cancelation for the first time in its 145-year history
  • US race tracks are closing doors to fans, and the first Road to the Kentucky Derby race cancelation occurred this past weekend
  • Read on to get all the odds and insight into this rapidly evolving story

There have been fewer things in life more certain than the running of the Kentucky Derby. Over its illustrious 145-year history, the Run for the Roses has never been postponed or canceled, enduring through two world wars, the Great Depression, and violent storms.

However, horse racing’s most famous event may have met its match in the current coronavirus crisis, with the odds of this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby not taking place as scheduled on May 2 pegged at short -200 odds.

Odds Kentucky Derby Runs as Scheduled on May 2

Color Odds
Yes +160
No -200

Odds taken Mar. 16

Race Tracks Closing Doors to Fans

First held way back in 1875, the Kentucky Derby has been run on the first Saturday of May every year since 1932. And while inclement weather has led to delays in post time, postponement and cancelations have always been avoided.

However, as the COVID-19 outbreak has rapidly widened across North America, a number of racetracks have closed their doors to fans including Santa Anita Park, Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Gulfstream, all of which stage races as part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Currently, racing continues at those parks without fans in attendance, but it remains to be seen for how long. Scheduled for March 22, the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park in New Mexico has already been canceled. And as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in both New York State and California, it is becoming increasingly unclear whether Aqueduct and Santa Anita will be able to stay open for the running of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby in early April.

Road to the Kentucky Derby Races at Risk

Locations hosting Road to the Kentucky Derby races have also been hard hit. Located northeast of London, Chelmsford City Racecourse is set to host the cardinal Derby, the last race in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby, on April 2. But with the US banning all flights from the United Kingdom indefinitely, it is uncertain whether any horses from that series of races will make it to Churchill Downs by May 2.

Kentucky has not been spared by the spread of COVID-19. The state has ordered the closure of all bars and restaurants, as well as the closure of schools, and the cancelation of religious services and other social gatherings after the virus claimed its first victim over the weekend.

Baffert Hopeful

The US Centers for Disease Control have also offered a bleak outlook, recommending the cancelation of events that would be attended by 50 or more people for at least the next eight weeks. With so many indicators pointing towards the Kentucky Derby not being run on May 2, there looks to be little value in the +160 odds of the race taking place as scheduled.

However, horse racing fans should take heart from recent comments made by legendary trainer Bob Baffert this past weekend indicating that Churchill Downs plans to hold the Kentucky Derby with fans in attendance, possibly in June or September.

Pick: No (-200)

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