Odds & Picks at Santa Anita June 21: Melair, San Juan Capistrana and American Stakes

• Santa Anita features three stakes races on their Sunday card
• The Melair Stakes for three-year-old fillies could launch a horse into the Kentucky Oaks conversation
• Where can we find betting value among Sunday’s opportunities?

It feels like summertime when a Sunday card can be filled with three stakes races. That is the case this week at Santa Anita. The richest of the trio is the Melair Stakes for California bred three-year-old fillies.

With young horses come challenges. This mile-and-a-sixteenth event on the dirt has horses changing surfaces, others trying two turns for the first time, and several stepping up in class.

Let’s look at the field and consider our best betting options, and then peak at the other stakes action on the docket for Sunday.

2020 Melair Stakes Odds

Odds taken June 17

Top Candidates

If you are looking for upside, Big Sweep is the horse for you. She didn’t make her career debut until March and beat state-bred maiden special weights at even money. She returned as the favorite, against boys, and made it two for two with a stakes victory last month.

Now the Mark Glatt trained daughter of Mr. Big stretches out for the first time. However, she is back to just facing girls, and if the extra distance isn’t a problem she will be tough to beat.

Smiling Shirlee has won back-to-back races and in six career starts on dirt has three wins, two seconds, and one third. The best performance of her career came last month in a sprint at Santa Anita. The Jeff Bonde trained filly has lost to a couple of horses in this race.

Smiling Shirlee was the favorite when she came up short on turf in a stakes race in January. The winner that day was Warren’s Showtime. That was in the Cal Cup Oaks, and Warren’s Showtime returned to win the China Doll Stakes.

She might be the favorite on turf, where all four of her victories have taken place, but on dirt three races have been good not great efforts. However, this is her first dirt race around two turns. All four of her turf wins are routing.

The Bet

We need to see Warren’s Showtime win on dirt before we truly believe it. Smiling Shirlee is very viable, but is she a step slower than these? Big Sweep is clearly very talented, but she hasn’t yet raced around two turns. This field has enough question marks that Big Sweep’s weakness, lack of experience, should be overcome by talent. You aren’t going to get rich with her but there is a good chance of cashing a ticket.

Sunday’s Other Stakes Races

San Juan Capistrano Stakes — Three-year-olds and up try the marathon distance of a-mile-and-three-quarters on the turf. Ward ‘n Jerry is back in action after finishing fifth in a stakes race June 6. Trainer Mike Puype thinks the longer distance will help in this race. Siberian Iris has been facing top competition and relishes longer races. Tintoretto is a wildcard. He ran poorly in America in 2018 and early last year, but shipped to Germany and excelled in very long events. Now he is returning from a six-month layoff for top trainer John Sadler.

American Stakes — Several top contenders are making their 2020 debut in this race going a mile on the turf. Sharp Samurai returns to Santa Anita’s turf where he has five wins in eight tries. Give Blitzkrieg a mulligan for his performance last time out returning from the Middle East, he should be ready for Doug O’Neil Sunday. Bowie’s Hero last ran in the Breeders Cup in November and has multiple grade one wins on his resume.