Odds and Picks at Saratoga August 15: Alabama Stakes & Saratoga Derby Invitational

• Three-year-olds take center stage Saturday at Saratoga
• Top Kentucky Oaks contender Swiss Skydiver highlights The Alabama field
• Decorated Invader and Field Pass will be favorites in The Saratoga Derby Invitational

The Kentucky Oaks is three weeks away. Last Saturday at Saratoga Gamine blew away a decent field in The Test, though that race was only seven furlongs. This Saturday Gamine’s top challenger, Swiss Skydiver stars in the mile-and-a-quarter Alabama Stakes.

Swiss Skydiver took on the boys, finishing second behind Art Collector July 11 in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes. Now she is back to running against other females. The Alabama is an eighth of a mile longer than the Oaks.

Three-year-old boys will race a-mile-and-three-sixteenth on the turf in The Saratoga Derby Invitational. New York-based Decorated Invader is seeking a sixth career victory following a win at The Spa last month. She’ll be challenged by Field Pass, who has won four of five including a graded stakes at Keeneland on July 12.

Let’s breakdown the two big races Saturday at Saratoga and consider where we can get some value for our betting dollars.

2020 Alabama Stakes Odds

All odds taken August 13

The Alabama is a Kentucky Oaks qualifying race. Swiss Skydiver and Bonny South already have enough points, but for everyone else this is the final opportunity to land a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in the Oaks. It is also a Win and You’re in Race for the Breeders Cup Distaff. Post time is slated for 5:43 pm EST. The race will be televised on Fox Sports 1.

Favorite

For six months Swiss Skydiver has been superb. Over the last half-year, she has three graded stakes victories, and the runner up performance to Art Collector, who is likely to be the second betting choice in the Kentucky Derby.

This is the longest race of her career, and she faded down the stretch at Keeneland last time out, but nobody in The Alabama field has ever gone 10 furlongs. She will be forwardly placed and difficult to reel in.

Other Contenders

Trainer Bob Baffert runs perhaps the highest-end barn in the country. He trains Gamine, and has another talented albeit untested three-year-old filly in Crystal Ball. She has just one victory in three starts but fought hard in a grade one race last time out at The Spa.

Paris Lights is a tough filly and being neck and neck with her down the stretch is strong.

Bonny South was off for close to four months following back-to-back wins in the spring. She finished fourth, and Envoutante was third in last month’s Ashland Stakes at Keeneland.

The winner of that race, Speech, and runner up, Venetian Harbor, are bound for the Kentucky Oaks. Bonny South should be better second off a layoff, and Envoutante, who is trained by Swiss Skydiver’s conditioner Kenny McPeek, is training well, and with mild improvement could be in the mix Saturday.

Analysis

Swiss Skydiver is going to be a deserving huge favorite. Her race against the boys was very impressive, but how much did it take out of her, and did it show that she doesn’t want to go much further than a-mile-and-a-sixteenth? If you think she is vulnerable, let’s shop for a better price. Crystal Ball cost $750,000, and Baffert has a deep and talented stable. She ran well at Saratoga and there is some value present.

Pick: Crystal Ball (+450)

2020 Saratoga Derby Invitational Odds

This very competitive field will be in the gate around 5:07 pm EST. The purse is $500,000. The race is relatively new, and that is why it is not a graded stakes, but it will likely be a grade one or two event next year.

Favorites

Veteran trainer Christophe Clement has always been excellent with turf runners, and this year at Saratoga he has had a terrific meet. Decorated Invader won for him last August at Saratoga, followed it up with a grade one win in Canada, and then was fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. After taking almost five months off, he is three for three in 2020 including last month’s Hall of Fame Stakes at The Spa.

In the win, Decorated Invader ran past pacesetter Get Smokin, and held off late coming Domestic Spending. Both return to take him on again in the Derby Invitational. Domestic Spending is trained by Chad Brown, the most successful turf trainer in the US. His loss in the Hall of Fame came after two straight wins to begin his career.

Field Pass has won four of five races this year and is coming off an impressive victory at Keeneland last month.

That gutty victory came over today’s rival Bama Breeze among others. Bama Breeze lost to Field Pass by just a length in June at Churchill Downs. Field Pass just barely beat Get Smokin in February in Florida. He narrowly knocked off Decorated Invader last summer at Saratoga.

Top trainer Todd Pletcher has two horses entered. Gufo, who has won four straight including the grade three Kent Stakes at Delaware Park on July 4, and Colonel Liam, who posted the top speed figure among any horse in this race when he made his turf debut July 22 in an allowance race at Saratoga.

Analysis

These horses feel fairly evenly matched and there are a lot of good options. Colonel Liam was purchased for $1.2 million and while his first two starts were ho-hum, perhaps it is the sod he really wants to run on. His latest workout was really strong, and he is the play in the Saratoga Derby.

Pick: Colonel Liam (+350)