Odds & Picks at Saratoga July 24-26: Alfred G Vanderbilt, Quick Call & Bernard Baruch
- The Grade 1 Vanderbilt Handicap highlights a big weekend at Saratoga
- Breeders Cup winner Sistercharlie headlines a strong field in the Ballston Spa Stakes
- Where can you most wisely wager this weekend at The Spa?
While Saratoga is known for a lot of things, most are not applicable with no attendance allowed because of COVID-19. The ambiance and beauty, and drinks at Siro’s will have to wait for next year for most fans. However, the incredibly high level of racing remains, and Saturday at Saratoga means multiple graded stakes races for handicappers to wager on remotely.
This weekend The Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap has only five horses scheduled to run, but that doesn’t make it a stone-cold lock. Up and coming Volatile will battle more established stakes winners like Mind Control, Whitmore and Firenze Fire.
What makes Saratoga special is not only the highest of high-level races, but the number of top-level races if not every day certainly each weekend. Let’s break down the Vanderbilt, and profile several other top events this weekend.
2020 Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Volatile | -125 |
| Whitmore | +200 |
| Firenze Fire | +400 |
| Mind Control | +600 |
| Lexitonian | +2000 |
Odds taken July 23
It is weird to see a stakes race at Saratoga that doesn’t involve trainers Todd Pletcher or Chad Brown, but only five horses will take part in this six-furlong event on the main track for older horses. Post time is scheduled for 6:16 pm EST Saturday. Fox Sports 1 will air the race.
Top Candidates
Is Volatile a vulnerable favorite who has impressed against lesser horses, or the next great sprinter? We’ll go a long way towards answering that question this weekend when he faces graded stakes competition for the first time. There is no doubt the Steve Asmussen trained son of Violence was impressive at Churchill Downs last month.
Volatile has won four of five career races. The last two are by margins of eight and seven-and-a-half lengths. That said, his last race came against just five rivals, and the level of competition over his first four races was only ok.
The other four horses can be assessed in part by watching two races. Whitmore and Lexitonian faced off on April 18, while Firenze Fire and Mind Control met June 6.
$3 Million Reasons to Like Whitemore
Whitmore has won 14 times in 34 races, finished second on 10 occasions, and in three sprints this year has two wins and a runner up finish. He had no difficulty with Lexitonian, and nine other rivals in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap on April 18.
Last year Whitmore was second in the Breeders Cup Sprint. He finished third in that event two years ago. At the age of seven if Whitmore runs his best race he continues to be a tough customer.
In the Carter Handicap Firenze Fire was 5/1 and Mind Control was 7/2. Neither ran their best race, but Firenze Fire returned to win the True North Handicap, and Mind Control will be second off a layoff in the Vanderbilt.
The Carter is the only loss for Firenze Fire over his past five races. He was fifth in the Breeders Cup Sprint, and finished fourth in this race last year. Mind Control had won three straight before the Carter. He has never posted a speed figure in the 100’s, which Volatile, Whitmore, and Firenze Fire have hit multiple times.
Saratoga’s Other Big Races
Friday
The Quick Call Stakes
Three olds sprinting on turf are led by Jack and Noah who was beyond impressive last month nearly setting a track record at Belmont Park.
Jack and Noah has won three of six career races. He’ll have to contend with Turned Aside, who was second in the Sir Cat to Jack and Noah last time out. That was Turned Aside’s 2020 debut, and any improvement in this race makes him a serious player.
Fore Left was outclassed in the Belmont Stakes, but now he cuts back to a sprint, tries the turf, and trainer Doug O’Neill sent his horse to Dubai and won a graded stakes in February.
Saturday
The Ballston Spa Stakes
Will 2020 be as successful as 2018 and 2019 for Sistercharlie? Two years ago she won four of five races including the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Last year she was three for four and finished third in the same Breeders Cup race. She’s two for two at Saratoga and won her only race at the Ballston Spa distance of a-mile-and-a-sixteenth.
Sistercharlie’s primary competition appears to be Starship Jubilee. She’s already three for three this year, has won five of her last six, and finished third in this race last year.
Thus far at Saratoga this year everything trainer Christophe Clement has started has won or come close. Call Me Love has faced top tier competition in two races in the US, finishing fourth last time out in a grade two event, after a runner up performance in a grade three.
Sunday
The Bernard Baruch Handicap
The who’s who of Saratoga trainers account for all six horses in this mile-and-a-sixteenth turf race. Chad Brown has two horses, Mike Maker a pair, and Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott each saddle contenders.
The up and comer of the group is Brown’s Good Governance. He is one for one this year and two for three in his career. Last year he broke his maiden at Saratoga and finished a strong second in the Saranac Stakes.
The older competition for Good Governance is significant. Halladay has won three of his last four in Florida and has hit the board in 11 of 12 career races. Olympico ran huge finishing second in the Knickerbocker Stakes but has been off since October.
Even Somelikeithotbrown isn’t impossible. He has done his best racing on a synthetic surface but was a solid third against a good field last time out at Belmont Park.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
