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Odds & Picks at Saratoga Sept 5-7: Woodward Handicap, Spinaway Stakes & Hopeful Stakes

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 10, 2021 · 7:35 AM PST

Churchill Downs photo
The Kentucky Derby has been moved from May to September and futures prices are shifting. Photo from Wikimedia Commons.
  • Closing Weekend at Saratoga is full of graded stakes races
  • While Churchill Downs takes center stage on Saturday with the Kentucky Derby, don’t sleep on The Spa
  • Where can we find the best betting value over the holiday weekend at Saratoga?

A summer unlike any other at Saratoga is wrapping up. No fans descended upon The Spa this year because of COVID-19, but the racing has been top-notch as always. Despite being upstaged by the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, this is a very strong weekend in Upstate New York to wager on.

On Saturday the grade one Woodward Handicap highlights four graded stakes races. Sunday’s feature is the grade one Spinaway Stakes for two-year-old fillies. The closing day holiday Monday card is led by two-year-old boys going seven furlongs on the dirt in the grade one Hopeful Stakes.

When Saratoga’s 2021 season comes along hopefully fans will be back. If you win wagering on closing weekend you can look forward to planning your trip all winter. Let’s look carefully at the action this weekend and see if we can find some prices.

2020 Woodward Handicap Odds

Horse Odds at Bet365
Tacitus -125
Global Campaign +400
Spinoff +550
Moretti +800
Math Wizard +1600
Prioritze +2000

All odds taken September 4

Saratoga racing is televised by Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2. Post time for The Woodard is 5:30 pm EST. The mile-and-a-quarter affair on the main track has a purse of $500,000.

Top Contenders

Tacitus has run in a lot of big races. He was third in the Kentucky Derby last year, second in the Belmont Stakes, and second at Saratoga in 2019 in the grade two Jim Dandy Stakes and grade one Travers Stakes. On July 4 he snapped a seven-race losing streak with a victory in the grade two Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park.

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Tacitus has earned $2.8 million over a 12 race career and though he doesn’t win a ton, fits very well with this group.

Like Tacitus, Math Wizard doesn’t win all that frequently. He has three wins in 18 starts but usually is close against solid competition. It has been almost a year since he last won. That was his best career race, the Pennsylvania Derby.

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Since that victory Math Wizard has run five times and has hit the board just once, a second-place performance in the Monmouth Cup Stakes on July 18.

Spinoff is stepping up in class after winning Saratoga’s Albany Stakes last month. He has never won a graded stakes though was second in the 2019 Louisiana Derby.

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With five wins in eight career starts Global Campaign is coming off a strong win in the Monmouth Cup Stakes in July. His only bad race came against a strong field at Churchill Downs in May’s Blame Stakes.

Pick: Global Campaign (+250)

Sunday

Spinaway Stakes

Six horses who have run a total of 10 times and won six of them meet in this historic two-year stakes race for fillies. The pedigree for winning a top tier race at Saratoga is not normally three victories in Ohio, but Buckeye bred Esplanande has half the wins for the field.

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Esplanande’s trainer Tim Hamm has never won a great one race.

Hall of Fame trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Joel Rosario have so many graded stakes wins they don’t even remember them all. They have Lady Lilly in this one. She’s one-for-one after breaking her maiden in a tight affair at Saratoga early last month.

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Lady Lilly isn’t the only one-for-one youngster. Irish Constitution went wire-to-wire at The Spa in a maiden race on July 24 for trainer Ray Handal.

Beautiful Memories won his debut for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse in May at Churchill Downs, but stumbled out of the gate and was pulled up in a stakes race at Saratoga on opening day. She has been well supported at the betting window in both starts.

Pick: Beautiful Memories

Monday

Hopeful Stakes

Arguably the top two-year-old race in the country, more than a dozen horses have won The Hopeful and gone on to victory at the Belmont Stakes. The Hopeful has been run since 1904. That year Tanya was victorious, and half a year later she went on to victory in the Test of the Champion.

Asmussen sends out Jackie’s Warrior who is not only seeking a three-for-three start to her career but a second graded stakes victory.

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Jackie’s Warrior easily handled Papetu in the Saratoga Special. Papetu is the only other horse in this race who has run more than once. He was two-for-two before the flat effort last time out.

Reinvestment Risk, Mutasaabeq, Nutsie, and Fearless Fly all won maiden races in their first career race, and this will be their second try.

Trained by Chad Brown, owned by Klaravich Stables, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Reinvestment Risk has tremendous connections and won his debut by more than seven lengths at 4/1.

Top trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Shadwell Stable have high hopes for Mutasaabeq. He was bet heavily and responded in his first race.

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On paper this is a very high-end juvenile race and it will be fun to watch next year’s Kentucky Derby hopefuls compete just a couple days after the Run for the Roses.

Pick: Mutasaabeq

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