Santa Anita Derby and Santa Anita Oaks Odds & Betting Previews
- The Santa Anita Derby and Santa Anita Oaks will be run Saturday in Southern California
- Authentic, a Kentucky Derby favorite, faces six rivals in the Derby
- Swiss Skydiver is the favorite in the Oaks, a prep for September’s Kentucky Oaks
Originally scheduled for April, the Santa Anita Derby and Santa Anita Oaks often serve as the final launching pad for horses to run in the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Thanks to COVID-19, Santa Anita was closed in April, and the Kentucky Derby has been rescheduled for the first Saturday in September.
This Saturday the Santa Anita Derby and Oaks will be run, and both are preps for the main events in Louisville, though horses will need a race or two in-between.
With the Belmont Stakes slated for later this month, most Kentucky Derby candidates will not be in California this weekend. However, a field of seven has one of the favorites for the Run for the Roses, Authentic, and at least one and possibly more viable alternatives.
Let’s take a look at the horses entered in both races and try to hone in on a winner or two.
2020 Santa Anita Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Authentic | +120 |
| Honor A.P. | +250 |
| Shooters Shoot | +600 |
| Rushie | +800 |
| Anneau d’Or | +1000 |
| Azul Coast | +1500 |
| Friar’s Road | +2000 |
All odds taken June 6
Favorite
There is a reason that Authentic, along with Tiz The Law, Charlatan, and Maxfield are the clear favorites for the Kentucky Derby at this stage. He has done everything right. While his primary rivals prepare for the Belmont Stakes, Authentic remains in California where he has won each of his three career starts. His blowout win to begin 2020 in the Sham Stakes was impressive.
Trained by Bob Baffert, who conditioned the last two Triple Crown winners, Authentic has been the favorite in each of his three races, and will once again be expected to triumph on Saturday.
Other Contenders
Honor A.P. was sold for $850,000 and is very much in the Kentucky Derby conversation despite just one victory in three starts. After a solid second against a good field in his debut, he blew out maidens at Santa Anita in October. Then he ran into several problems, medical and otherwise, and was off until facing Authentic in March’s San Felipe Stakes. For a horse that had not raced in five months, his second-place effort was solid.
Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith loves Honor A.P. and he should improve considerably in his second race as a three-year-old.
If you are looking for a bigger price, what about Shooter’s Shoot or Anneau d’Or? Shooter’s Shoot started his career with three mediocre-looking efforts, but then came back to run second against Charlatan, broke his maiden wire-to-wire against a field that included Friar’s Road, and last time out beat a good optional claiming field at Oaklawn Park. Meanwhile, Anneau d’Or missed winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile by just a head and returned to finish a neck behind in the Los Alamitos Futurity. His last two races in Arkansas are ugly, but being back in California may help
Analysis
In a field of seven you can make an argument for just about everyone except Friar’s Road. That said, Authentic and Honor A.P. stand out. While Authentic is the most likely winner, Honor A.P. will break from the starting gate inside of the favorite, and he should improve significantly in his second start off a long layoff. The value is with Honor A.P.
2020 Santa Anita Oaks Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Swiss Skydiver | +120 |
| Speech | +160 |
| Merneith | +200 |
| Regal Beauty | +1500 |
| Smiling Shirlee | +2000 |
Favorite: Swiss Skydiver
Out of nowhere Swiss Skydiver has become the class of the three-year-old ladies. Trainer Kenny McPeek’s lightly bred filly won just one of her first four starts and was 9/1 when she shocked a good field in March’s Gulfstream Park Oaks. Bettors felt it was a one-time aberration and let her go off at 16/1 in May’s Fantasy Stakes. Those who believed in her work in Florida were rewarded.
Smith will ride her for the first time on Saturday. McPeek considered sending her to Europe for a lucrative race but because of COVID-19 elected to keep her in America. She’s the type of horse who may be hurt by the Kentucky Oaks moving to September. She was ready to roll in May.
Other Contenders
Speech has finished in the money in each of her five starts but has just one win and has been the runner up in three straight races. That said, last time out at Oaklawn Park, she faced a monster in Gamine and gave her all she wanted.
While that was clearly Speech’s best career race, if she can duplicate it she will be tough to beat.
Merneith is a pricey filly trained by Baffert and bred by the China Horse Club. She finished second twice before romping by more than 10 lengths last time out. Baffert knows how to have horses running their best as they get to the biggest races and she has a lot of early speed. It is likely the competition will need to pass her to win.
Analysis
The three primary contenders are all legit, but Gamine is the top horse in the division right now and Speech came within an eyelash of beating her. She presents a little value and we feel is the most likely winner though due respect must be paid to Swiss Skydiver and Merneith.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
