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Sword Dancer Stakes Odds & Betting Preview: Picks at Saratoga Aug 29-30

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 1:37 PM PST

Photo of Churchill Downs
The first Saturday in May is Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. This year, there is a virtual Derby among Triple Crown winners. Photo by Richard Hurt (flickr).
  • There are two grade one races and four graded stakes Saturday at Saratoga
  • The Sword Dancer Stakes is a Breeders Cup Win and You’re In Event
  • Where can we find the best value for our betting money this weekend at The Spa?

Saturday is the type of day at Saratoga that makes it Saratoga. It isn’t Whitney or Travers Day but one big-time race follows the next. Four graded stakes are on Saturday’s card and there’s another on Sunday for good measure.

The Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes (5:43 pm EST) has not only a purse of $500,000 but a berth in the Breeders Cup Turf up for grabs. The mile-and-a-half trek for older horses includes grade one winners Aquaphobia and Channel Maker.

Earlier on Saturday (2:18 pm EST), the grade three Saranac Stakes is a $100,000 event for three-year-olds going a mile on the turf. It is an interesting event with horses shipping in from all over for the challenge.

The grade two Amsterdam Stakes (4:32 pm EST) is a dirt sprint for three-year-olds. Basin is cutting back after racing for most of this year on the Triple Crown trail. Three contenders come out of the same prep race at Belmont Park.

Older horses sprint on the main track in the grade one Forego Stakes (5:07 pm EST). A purse of $300,000 has attracted graded stakes winners Whitmore, Lexitonian, Complexity, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control.

On Sunday the grade three Shuvee Stakes for older fillies going a-mile-and-an-eighth on the dirt is a competitive event that includes recent graded stakes winner Horologist, and the consistently strong Golden Award.

Let’s examine closely the Sword Dancer and evaluate the other top-notch races this weekend at Saratoga.

2020 Sword Dancer Stakes Odds

Horse Odds at Bet365
Sadler’s Joy +250
Cross Border +275
Aquaphobia +350
Corelli +750
Pedro Cara +850
Channel Maker +1200
Marzo +2000
Highland Sky +2000

Odds taken August 27

The Sword Dancer has been run since 1975. Trainer’s Bill Mott and Chad Brown have won the event three times. Jockey Javier Castellano has crossed the finish line first on three occasions. Brown and Castellano paired up last year to win the race with Annals of Time. Saturday’s slate at The Spa will air on Fox Sports 2.

Top Candidates

Sadler’s Joy, a seven-year-old veteran with nearly $2.6 million of career earnings, finished first in the grade one Bowling Green Stakes on August 1 at Saratoga but was disqualified and placed fourth. In getting to the wire first he beat several other competitors in this field, including Cross Border who was awarded the win.

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With Castellano riding Sadler’s Joy he narrowly edged Cross Border, Highland Sky, Channel Maker, and Marzo who return to look for revenge today. Sadler’s Joy has one career grade one victory, this very race in 2017. He finished sixth in the Sword Dancer in 2018 and was the runner up last year.

Cross Border is five for five at Saratoga but only the DQ victory last time out came against a field near this quality.

Mott’s Channel Maker has not won in more than a year but is a grade one caliber horse with more than $2.2 million of earnings.

Bowling Green vs. United Nations

While several strong candidates return after running in the Bowling Green, the speed figures that came out of the grade one United Nations at Monmouth Park on July 18 are actually a pinch better. Aquaphobia earned the win that day at 11/1 and Corelli wasn’t far behind.

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Aquaphobia has never won in four tries at Saratoga, and is almost never bet really heavily, but this year has run well. That said, could this race be a little longer than he prefers?

Corelli may like the extra distance more, but has never beaten this level of competition

Pedro Cara is a complete wildcard. Last year in Europe he won four out of five races. He shipped to New York and finished a tight second at 38/1 in a $100,000 stakes race at Belmont Park. Then he went to the Middle East where he won a grade two event in December and finished third in a grade one in February. This is the second race of 2020 for the four-year-old.

When picking an outright winner, Aquaphobia was terrific last time out and a repeat of that strong performance is very possible, with his odds being reasonable.

Pick: Aquaphobia (+350)

Saratoga’s Other Big Races this Weekend

Saranac Stakes

In a race that has attracted horses from all over the globe, Don Juan Kitten is perhaps the best of the local horses. He won at Saratoga last month, and just missed at Belmont Park on June 7.

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Don Juan Kitten is owned by the powerful racing couple Ken and Sarah Ramsey. His dad is the Ramsey’s prized stallion Kitten’s Joy.

Top turf trainer Chad Brown sends out L’Imperator for his U.S. debut. The French-bred colt is coming off of three straight wins and has lost just once in his career.

Mike Repole wins as many races at Saratoga as any other owner, and he should have a big chance with Bodecream. Off since finishing out of contention in a stakes race at Churchill Downs in May, he won a stakes race in Texas to start the year.

Vanzzy has four wins, two in Pennsylvania, one in Kentucky, and most recently in New Jersey. He has the most victories of any horse in the race, and a repeat of his Jersey Derby triumph last time out will make him very competitive in this one.

The Amsterdam Stakes

Only six horses are entered and you can make an argument for each of them. While Basin wasn’t overly successful in longer races against Nadal, Charlatan, and Art Collector, some of the top Kentucky Derby candidates over the past six months, he now cuts back in distance and returns to Saratoga where he is two for two.

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Basin will face the top three finishers from the Gold Fever Stakes at Belmont Park.

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At 13/1 Liam’s Pride edged 11/1 Wondrwherecraigis, and massive favorite Long Weekend was right there too.

Yaupon is two-for-two and while he is facing better horses in this one, his 101 Beyer Speed Figure last time out is the best that any horse in this group has posted.

The Forego Stakes

This is a terrific betting race with 11 quality horses. Whitmore, Mind Control, and Firenze Fire are making their first starts since running into Volatile, who appears to be the next superstar in the sprint division.

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Whitmore entered the Vanderbilt having won two straight. He has earned over $3 million and twice hit the board in the Breeders Cup Sprint.

Mind Control has two wins in three tries at Saratoga and is four for seven at the seven-furlong distance.

Firenze Fire was the runner up to ultra-quick Mitole in this race last year.

Chad Brown’s Complexity is stepping back up in class after a win at Belmont in July, his four-year-old debut. He won the grade one Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old.

The Shuvee Stakes

Golden Award won this race last year and has run well in 2020.

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She is coming off of a second-place effort in a stakes race at Saratoga on August 5. In 10 of 14 races, Golden Award has finished first or second.

Horologist won a strong stakes race at Monmouth Park on Haskell Day last month. Five of her six wins are at Monmouth. She has never raced at Saratoga.

Another Broad hasn’t won in more than a year, but was third against superstar Midnight Bisou last time out in the Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs. Three of her four career wins are in Maryland.

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