Updated Kentucky Derby Odds After Losses for Honor AP & Cezanne; Thousand Words’ Odds Shorten to 14-1

• The rescheduled Kentucky Derby is one month away
• The shocking outcome of the Shared Belief Stakes has shaken up futures odds
• What is the best way to bet the Run for the Roses now?

They’re dropping like flies.

They’re sucking wind.

It’s survival of the fittest.

Every year after the Breeders Cup Juvenile is run some two year old is anointed the “Kentucky Derby Favorite.” Then the next six months happen. They get sick, regress, others emerge, and by the first Saturday in May what happened in November is usually an afterthought.

The updated 2020 Kentucky Derby odds are void of many of the horses declared favorites at one point or another. Others, while still on the list, are extreme longshots at this juncture.

Because there are still a few Kentucky Derby prep races to be run odds are likely to fluctuate based on those results. That means some value can be locked in now, while strategic prospecting very well may open up opportunity.

Let’s look at the top contenders and consider where we can put our cash and have positive expected value on the first Saturday in September.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds taken August 4

Favorite: Tiz The Law

I get it. His owners live in Saratoga Springs, NY, his trainer is New York-based, and Saturday’s Travers Stakes is the biggest race of the year at The Spa. That said, Tiz The Law has been spectacular thus far, so why have him geared up this week, and then try to turn around and do it again in less than a month?

Tiz The Law’s Belmont Stakes performance left very little doubt that he is a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite.

The Belmont win came in a one-turn affair, but that is nit picking a horse who is five for six in his career and perfect in three races this year. His current price feels very short particularly since he could run poorly in The Travers, and even if he looks amazing, it is hard to imagine him being a lot lower than 6/5 or even-money when the gates open in Louisville.

Top Contenders: Uncle Chuck & Art Collector

Attrition has really taken its toll on the Derby field. This is where Nadal, Charlatan, Maxfield, and several other figured to be. But alas, they are hurt, and it is more unproven horses that fill up the second tier.

Uncle Chuck has done nothing wrong. That said, he has run just twice, won both, and beaten a total of seven horses in the pair of trips. His Los Alamitos Derby was strong, but does that mean he should be the second choice in the Kentucky Derby?

Uncle Chuck was flattered by Thousand Words upset win in last week’s Shared Belief Stakes. We should find out plenty about him when he faces Tiz The Law in The Travers. Either he’ll win and be the +350 Kentucky Derby favorite, or falter and return to being double-digit odds. Unlike Tiz The Law, he needs the seasoning of another prep before the big dance.

Art Collector is divisive. While he has won four of his eight career starts, until last month’s Blue Grass Stakes he wasn’t considered a serious contender.

The Blue Grass can be viewed in a variety of ways. Art Collector looked the part and is bred to like increased distance. On the flip side, his competition at Keeneland was sort of suspect. He is running Sunday in the Ellis Park Derby.

Other Options: Honor A.P., Authentic, Thousand Words, Ny Traffic

In recent years horses from the west coast have done very well in the Triple Crown. Trainer Bob Baffert is a big reason for that. Last week in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar Baffert’s Thousand Words upset Honor A.P.

Thousand Words is now four-for-seven in his career. However, the win on Saturday was at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth.

Honor A.P. has seemingly relished more distance. While he was disappointing in his last effort, he had already qualified for the Kentucky Derby, and it is very possible he wasn’t fully cranked for this most recent prep.

Honor A.P. split two races with Authentic. While it wasn’t the most impressive performance of all time, after dropping the Santa Anita Derby to his rival, Authentic shifted to the east coast and won The Haskell Invitational.

Authentic is also trained by Baffert. However, after The Haskell many people questioned whether Authentic wants the Derby distance of a-mile-and-a-quarter, and how can you knock Ny Traffic?

Sure Ny Traffic typically plays the role of brides made. He has faced the best horses and takes them to the wire consistently. However, he rarely wins. He has been second in three straight top tier races. He’s a pro, has a versatile running style, and may just be the type who gets a little bit better each time out and will be at his best in a month.

While our favorite and top contenders are running again before the Derby, the other options are all resting up for the big day. That means their odds will only change if there is a major shakeup at the top, which is possible since those horses are risking another heat, and if they do poorly, will move back to the pack in the odds.

The Bet: Honor A.P.

For months I have liked Honor A.P. The fact he wasn’t geared up to run last week is not a bad thing. Keep your eye on the prize. Prep races are meant to get you qualified and be prepared come the main event. The Shared Belief was a glorified workout, and too short for Honor A.P. The fact his odds have ballooned is a win for bettors. He’s got a big chance next month at Churchill Downs and value is surprisingly present.