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2018 ALDS Series Prices: Yankees vs Red Sox; Indians vs Astros

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 16, 2020 · 2:15 PM PDT

Mookie Betts celebrating with Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts.
Photo by Keith Allison {flickr) [CC License].
  • The 2018 ALDS Series are set.
  • The MLB’s two best offenses go head to head in Yankees vs Red Sox.
  • Indians vs Astros features the two best rotations in the AL and should be a masterclass in pitching. 
  • Get the series odds, statistical comparisons of the teams, and expert picks to advance to the ALCS.

The New York Yankees blasted the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wild Card Game (7-2) to finalize the 2018 ALDS matchups.

The Yankees will face their archrivals, the AL East-champion Boston Red Sox, while the Central-winning Cleveland Indians battle the reigning champion Houston Astros.

Below, find the prices for the best-of-five series, plus a full statistical breakdown and picks to advance to the Championship Series.

Indians vs Astros ALDS Odds

INDIANS ASTROS
+143 -163

Unlike the National League Division Series which see three surprise teams still alive, the ALDS have four powerhouses battling it out. As our World Series odds tracker shows, not one of these teams was longer than +1300 to win the World Series at any point this season.

The Indians reached +1300 back in early June, but are now back to +900. The only reason their odds are still that long is the arduous road they face in the American League. First up is the Astros (currently +350 to win the World Series) who, as shown in the chart below, have the lowest starting pitcher ERA and the lowest bullpen ERA in all of baseball.

Indians vs Astros Statistical Comparison

Indians
VS
Astros
91-71 RECORD 103-59
+170 (5th) RUN DIFFERENTIAL +263 (1st)
.259 (2nd) TEAM BATTING AVERAGE .255 (7th)
216 (6th) TEAM HOME RUNS 205 (10th)
.332 (6th) TEAM OBP .329 (7th)
 .434 (6th) TEAM SLUGGING .425 (8th)
 .766 (4th) TEAM OPS .754 (7th)
3.39 (3rd) STARTING PITCHERS’ ERA 3.16 (1st)
4.60 (25th)  BULLPEN ERA 3.03 (1st)
3-4  2018 HEAD-TO-HEAD 4-3

The Indians have a slight edge in most batting categories and recently added former MVP Josh Donaldson to their top-heavy lineup. In the last two weeks of the regular season, Donaldson started to find his groove, slashing .324/.468/.568 with two homers and three doubles.

Given the way Jose Ramirez has tailed off in the second half (Pre-ASG: .302/.401/.628, 29 HRs; post-ASG: /.223/.369/.436, 10 HRs), the Tribe will need Donaldson to keep producing. The book is out on Ramirez – never, under any circumstances, throw him a fastball – so his huge hip in production isn’t too likely to turn around.

The Astros have their own issues at the plate. Carlos Correa is having his worst season ever, even when he’s been healthy (.239/.323/.405, 15 HRs, 65 RBI) and 2017 World Series MVP George Springer’s production has fallen across the board; his average fell 18 points from last year, his on-base fell 21 points, and his slugging took a huge drop from .522 to .434.

The Astros will need Alex Bregman (.286/.394/.532, 31 HRs, 103 RBI) to continue to play at a near-MVP level to reach the lofty heights they did last season.

Indians vs Astros Probable Pitching Matchups

Indians
VS
Astros
Corey Kluber (2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) Game 1 Justin Verlander (2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
Carlos Carrasco (3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) Game 2 Gerrit Cole (2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
Mike Clevinger (3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) Game 3 Dallas Keuchel (3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

The numbers for the six probable starters in Games 1-3 are outlandish, but there’s one piece noticeably absent from that list: Cleveland’s Cy Young candidate, Trevor Bauer (2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).

Bauer returned from a fractured fibula in late September and only managed to pitch 9.1 innings in three appearances down the stretch. However, he did pitch four scoreless in relief on Sep. 30th vs Kansas City.

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Terry Francona plans to use him out of the pen in high-leverage situations, much like he used Andrew Miller in Cleveland’s 2016 run to the AL Pennant.

Francona will need Bauer to be dominant in relief in order to even up the bullpen matchup. While Miller and Brad Hand should lock down the 8th and 9th innings, the Tribe bullpen is thin in front of them.

Houston, on the other hand, will be able to trot out Ryan Pressly (0.77 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 12.34 K/9), Hector Rondon (3.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.22 K/9) and newly acquired Roberto Osuna (1.99 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) from their league-leading bullpen. AJ Hinch could potentially call upon starter Charlie Morton (3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.83 K/9), as well, using him the way Francona plans to use Bauer.

Series Pick: Astros (3-2)

In a battle between arguably the two best pitching staffs in the league, from top to bottom, I’m taking the offense that I trust more. Springer started to find his form in September (.330/.392/.466, 3 HRs), Yuli Gurriel was a monster over the final two weeks (.422/.422/.689, 3 HRs), and even Correa looked marginally better (.250/.308/.583) in the last seven days. Plus, almost every key piece on this Astros team has a track record of performing in October.

Yankees vs Red Sox ALDS Odds

YANKEES RED SOX
+145 -165

In addition to the Astros and Dodgers, the Yankees and Red Sox have been the 2018 World Series frontrunners since the 2017 World Series finished.

The Yankees became the preseason favorites after acquiring Giancarlo Stanton (+450) but steadily fell to +1000 over the course of the year thanks to a injuries, starting pitching issues, and the sheer strength of the Red Sox.

[The Red Sox] enter the postseason with the best odds to win the [World Series] at +320.

Boston has been at the top of the odds-list since about mid-July, when it became clear that their blistering offense wasn’t going anywhere. They enter the postseason with the best odds to win the Fall Classic at +320.

Yankees vs Red Sox Statistical Comparison

Yankees
VS
Red Sox
100-62 RECORD 108-54
+182 (4th) RUN DIFFERENTIAL +229 (2nd)
.249 (16th) TEAM BATTING AVERAGE .268 (1st)
267 (1st) TEAM HOME RUNS 208 (9th)
.329 (8th) TEAM OBP .339 (1st)
.451 (2nd) TEAM SLUGGING .453 (1st)
.781 (2nd) TEAM OPS .792 (1st)
4.05 (14th) STARTING PITCHERS’ ERA 3.77 (8th)
3.38 (4th)  BULLPEN ERA 3.74 (9th)
9-10  2018 HEAD-TO-HEAD 10-9

While Indians vs Astros is a battle between dominant pitching staffs, Yankees vs Red Sox is a clash between baseball’s best offenses. The Red Sox led the league in runs scored (876), while the Yankees were second (851) and set a record for home runs in a season (267).

They do it in different ways, but both teams can put up crooked numbers with little notice.

The Red Sox led the league in runs scored (876), while the Yankees were second (851) and set a record for home runs in a season (267).

Their methods of run prevention are also markedly different. The Yankee starters are only 14th overall in ERA, but they have the second-best bullpen in the majors in terms of xFIP-, a statistic that adjusts for variables like ballpark.

Boston, on the other hand, has relied on its starters all year. Their starters’ ERA (3.77) would have been even lower if not for an injury to Chris Sale which limited him to just 158 innings.

Getting from the starter to closer Craig Kimbrel has been Boston’s biggest issue this year, and it’s a problem which reared its head the most late in the season. The Red Sox’ pen was a woeful 24th in ERA in September with a 4.98 ERA, and that includes a respectable 3.86 ERA from Kimbrel.

Yankees vs Red Sox Probable Pitching Matchups

Yankees
VS
Red Sox
JA Happ (2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)* Game 1 Chris Sale (2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
Masahiro Tanaka (3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) Game 2 David Price (3.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Luis Severino (3.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) Game 3 Rick Porcello (4.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

*Since joining team midseason.

The pitching problems for Boston start at the middle relievers, but don’t end there unfortunately.

Ace Chris Sale hasn’t been the same since he came back from injury. Instead of reaching the mid-90s with his fastball, his velo is topping out just above 90 MPH.


The team has said it’s a mechanical issue, not an injury issue, but they need to sort it out either way. Sale has a 5.63 ERA in his last 8.0 IP and his team won’t be going anywhere if he doesn’t give them multiple quality starts in every series.

That’s especially the case in a best-of-five with New York given the way the Yankees have owned David Price. In four starts this year, Price has been hammered to the tune of a 10.34 ERA. He also had an inflated 5.68 ERA versus New York over the three seasons prior.

Series Pick: Yankees (3-1)

The Yankees have the far better bullpen and a finally-healthy Aaron Judge leading an equally potent batting order. Boston’s edge in starting pitching is too tenuous at the moment to lay -165 on the Sox. Without seeing more from Sale post-injury, the Yankees are considerably better value at +145.

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