2019 MLB Season Specials: Most RBIs, HRs, SBs, Losses & More
- Opening day in the MLB is March 28
- A number of league wide Over/Unders have been released
- Will there be a power surge in 2019? Or will speed dominate once again? Bet on home runs, stolen bases and more
With the start of the MLB season right around the corner, you should be set in terms of player and team props.
But what about ones that deal with the league as a whole?
If you feel like the home run will be making a comeback this year, you’re in luck. And if you believe that Nolan Arrenado will return leading baseball in RBI, there’s an O/U for you too.
And if you’re more into pitchers? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered with our MLB season specials.
2019 MLB Season Specials
We’re going to split things up into two sections: hitting and pitching.
We’ll start off with the hitters, where you can fare pretty well if you’re expecting an upswing in offense.
O/U on Home Runs in 2019
| Total Home Runs | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 48.5 home runs | -115 |
| Under 48.5 home runs | -115 |
* Odds from March 16, 2019
When you think baseball, you think home runs. And if you love the long ball, the you may think that the line for this is low.
But check out the numbers from 2018:
Top 5 MLB HR totals from 2018
| Player | Team | Home Runs in 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Khris Davis | OAK | 48 |
| JD Martinez | BOS | 43 |
| Joey Gallo | TEX | 40 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | 39 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | 39 |
With a total set at 48.5, Oakland’s Khris Davis was the only one who got close. There are some very good seasons on that list, but none that hit the over.
Things sway the way of the under when you consider the last five seasons too.
MLB HR OVERS from the past five seasons
| Season | Player | Home Runs |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton | 59 |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge | 52 |
Since 2014, Stanton and Judge are the only two to go over 48.5 in a single season.
The more you think about it, the more you realize how big of a number that actual is.
The Pick: Under 48.5 HR (-115)
O/U on RBI in 2019
| Total RBI | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 129.5 RBI | -115 |
| Under 129.5 RBI | -115 |
This is another number that seems power-dependent. Although you don’t have to lead the league in homers to have a healthy season RBI-wise.
Like the previous category however, the entire league finished shy of 2019’s projected line.
Top 5 MLB RBI totals in 2018
| Player | Team | RBI in 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| JD Martinez | BOS | 130 |
| Khris Davis | OAK | 123 |
| Javier Baez | CHC | 111 |
| Nolan Arenado | COL | 110 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | 110 |
JD Martinez was a threat for the triple crown all of last year, and ended up tops in RBI. Between second and third there was a 22 RBI difference, putting just two players in the neighborhood of over.
There’s one name that could be good news here, however.
MLB RBI OVERS from the past five seasons
| Season | Player | RBI |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | JD Martinez | 130 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton | 132 |
| 2017 | Nolan Arenado | 130 |
| 2016 | Nolan Arenado | 133 |
| 2015 | Nolan Arenado | 130 |
Nolan Arenado has been a force since entering the league, and after a ‘quiet’ 2019 he is a prime candidate to go over once again.
With Arenado on a good offense in Colorado, Bryce Harper in Philly, and a powerful duo with the Yanks, we like the over this season.
The Pick: Over 129.5 RBI (-115)
O/U on Stolen Bases in 2019
| Total Stolen Bases | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 54.5 stolen bases | -115 |
| Under 54.5 stolen bases | -115 |
One of the more thrilling categories, people love speed when it comes to baseball.
It may also be one of the easiest overs on the board too, even considering last year.
Top 5 MLB Stolen Base totals in 2018
| Player | Team | SB in 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Whit Merrifield | KC | 45 |
| Trea Turner | WAS | 43 |
| Mallex Smith | SEA | 40 |
| Jonathan Villar | MIL/BAL | 35 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | 34 |
No one went over last year, but there are a couple of names to keep an eye out for from the top five.
Trea Turner is coming off of back-to-back 40 steal seasons, so his age-26 season could see him crack 50 hitting atop the Nationals’ lineup. Smith was a speed demon throughout the minors. We can see the Mariners cutting him loose.
But one name stands out the last five years.
MLB Stolen Base OVERS the past five seasons
| Season | Player | SB |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Dee Gordon | 60 |
| 2017 | Billy Hamilton | 59 |
| 2016 | Jonathan Villar | 62 |
| 2016 | Billy Hamilton | 58 |
| 2015 | Dee Gordon | 58 |
| 2015 | Billy Hamilton | 57 |
| 2014 | Dee Gordon | 64 |
| 2014 | Jose Altuve | 56 |
| 2014 | Billy Hamilton | 56 |
Billy Hamilton is the man when it comes to speed, but his batting average has held him back.
Apparently he’s found confidence in the batter’s box with the Royals. Even without it he’s a 55+ steal threat, so we’ll bank on Hamilton’s potential alone.
The Pick: Over 54.5 stolen bases (-115)
Let’s move on to pitching.
O/U on Wins and Losses in 2019
| Total Wins | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 21.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 21.5 wins | -130 |
| Total Losses | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 17.5 losses | -115 |
| Under 17.5 losses | -115 |
Both lines available are record-based. Which isn’t ideal, because the importance of bullpens and then new fad of ‘openers’ hurt both overs.
Check out last year’s numbers
Top 5 MLB Win totals in 2018
| Player | Team | Wins in 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | TB | 21 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 20 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 19 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 18 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 18 |
Top 5 MLB Loss totals in 2018
| Player | Team | Losses in 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 16 |
| James Shields | CWS | 16 |
| Alex Cobb | BAL | 15 |
| Andrew Cashner | BAL | 15 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 15 |
In 2018, neither side hit their respective over.
Recent history doesn’t give us much confidence in these totals either.
MLB Win OVERS the past five seasons
| Season | Player | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Rick Porcello | 22 |
| 2015 | Jake Arrieta | 22 |
MLB Loss OVERS the past five seasons
| Season | Player | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Chris Archer | 19 |
| 2015 | James Shields | 19 |
| 2015 | AJ Burnett | 18 |
Pitcher totals have been going down, which makes the over almost unplayable.
The Pick: Under 21.5 Wins (-130); Under 17.5 losses (-115)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
