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Nationals (-120) Slightly Favored Over Cardinals (+100) to Reach World Series – 2019 NLCS Picks & Odds

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 26, 2020 · 10:28 AM PDT

Stephen Strasburg pitching for the Nationals
Now that they've won in the playoffs, can the Nationals make it through the NLCS to the World Series? Photo by Lorie Shaull (Flickr).
  • The Nationals and Cardinals will face off in the NLCS
  • Washington shocked the Dodgers, while St. Louis upset the Braves
  • Which team will advance to the World Series?

Well, just like we all expected, it’s the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals in the NLCS.

Right?

The Nats and Cardinals pulled off pivotal Game 5 victories in very different ways. The Cards jumped on the Braves early, scoring an eye-popping and record-setting 10 runs in the first inning.

Meanwhile, Howie Kendrick’s 10th-inning grand slam gave Washington its first series win since moving from Montreal.

That sets up a very unlikely NLCS. The Nationals enter as modest -120 favorites, despite the Cardinals having home-field advantage.

NLCS Series Odds

Team NLCS Odds
Washington Nationals -120
St. Louis Cardinals +100

Odds taken 10/10/2019.

Game 1 of the 2019 NLCS is scheduled for 8:08 PM ET on Friday, Oct. 11th. Game 2 follows on Saturday afternoon (4:08 PM ET, Oct 12), with the series shifting to Washington on Monday (Oct. 14; start time TBD).

Underdogs Advance

As mentioned, this series will pit a pair of underdogs against each other. On the last day of the regular season, the Dodgers (+269) and Braves (+613) topped the 2019 World Series odds. The Cards and Nats were at +1325 and +1500, respectively.

It’s a big swing for Washington. After coming up short in the playoffs for so many years, now that they’ve finally won a series, they’re favored to go to the World Series.

Nationals vs Cardinals Reg. Season Head-to-Head

Team Record Runs For Runs Against Hits For Hits Against K/BB
Washington Nationals 2-5 17 26 51 55 46/19
St. Louis Cardinals 5-2 26 17 55 51 83/25

In the regular season head-to-head, Washington’s big-three starters (Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer) went 2-3 with a no-decision.

It’s also important to note that four of those seven games came in late April. The other three came in mid-September.

Those K/BB numbers aren’t a typo, by the way. In six games, the Cardinals struck out at least 10 times. Washington only whiffed that many times once.

Cardinals’ Other Bats Need to Show Up for NLCS

St. Louis will be riding high from their 13-1 win over Atlanta in Game 5, but was it a little misleading?

Paul Goldschmidt had a pair of hits in that game, but was already hitting .438 with a pair of homers entering Game 5. Marcell Ozuna’s average actually dropped to .429 after that game.

As for the rest of the Cards’ lineup, they’re not holding up their end of the bargain.

Cards’ Production: Games 1-4 vs Game 5

Games 1-4
VS
Game 5
10/62 H/AB 7/19
.161 AVG .368
0 HR 0
3
RBI 8
4 Runs 7
4 XBH 5

These are the cumulative numbers of Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman. They also drew three walks in Game 5, all of which resulted in runs.

While it’s obvious why the Cards need that production to last a whole seven game series, the Nationals’ lineup provides added pressure in the NLCS. Anthony Rendon comes in hitting .412 through 17 NLDS at-bats, and has five RBI.

Scrolling through Washington’s lineup,  they have six players with at least 14 at-bats that hit .250 or better in the NLDS. St. Louis has Goldschmidt and Ozuna, and would fall off even more significantly after that if it wasn’t for Game 5.

Big-Time Arms on Display

Sorting out who’s starting and when may be difficult. Both teams have been using their starters as high leverage relievers on their off days. But those instances likely would replace bullpen days anyways.

Top-Three Starters for Nationals & Cardinals

Team GP/GS W/L K/BB ERA WHIP FIP
Jack Flaherty, STL 33/33 11-8 231/55 2.75 0.97 3.46
Miles Mikolas, STL 32/32 9-14 144/32 4.16 1.22 4.27
Dakota Hudson, STL 33/32 16-7 136/86 3.35 1.41 4.93
Max Scherzer, WSH 33/33 18-6 251/56 3.32 1.04 3.25
Patrick Corbin, WSH 33/33 14/7 238/70 3.25 1.18 3.49
Stephen Strasburg, WSH 27/27 11-7 243/33 2.92 1.03 2.45

Both teams will go four deep as well, with Adam Wainwright and Anibal Sanchez sliding in.

Corbin’s numbers in the NLDS weren’t great, posting a 7.88 ERA in three appearances (one start). That’s bloated by a terrible relief appearance in Game 3, however. Sanchez, Scherzer and Strasburg provided their typical lock-down stuff.

The Cards’ pitching was even better. Three of their starters posted ERAs under 2.00. Flaherty actually had the highest, with a 2.77 ERA over two games, but he was still dominant.

Edge Goes to Nationals in NLCS

While St. Louis had the better record head-to-head in the regular season, there’s one thing that could hold them back. Their offense.

Removing the Game 5 explosion, this is a team that relied heavily on two bats for four games. And if the strikeout numbers against the Nationals carry over into the NLCS? The Cards will struggle to generate anything.

Washington has already pushed aside their playoff demons. Now they’ll ride that momentum through the NLCS to the World Series.

The Pick: Nationals Win NLCS (-120)

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