Orioles vs Red Sox Odds and Picks (Sep. 18)

• The Boston Red Sox are heavy home favorites over the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday afternoon
• The Orioles send Zac Lowther (0-2, 9.92 ERA) to the mound to face Nick Pivetta (9-7, 4.55 ERA)
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Boston Red Sox will try to remain in the thick of the American League Wild Card race with a home date against the Baltimore Orioles at 1:10 pm ET Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at Fenway Park.

Manager Alex Cora’s crew has gone 8-6 entering Friday’s series opener during the final full month of the regular season. The 2018 World Series champs — who have missed the playoffs the last two seasons — enter Friday’s tilt tied with Toronto for the two AL Wild Card spots, each team a half game ahead of division rival New York. With the cellar-dwelling Orioles coming in town, it’s not surprise the BoSox are heavy favorites.

Orioles vs Red Sox Odds

Odds as of September 17th at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

On the mound, Baltimore’s Zac Lowther faces Nick Pivetta.

The Orioles are still trying to figure out what they have in the 25-year-old former second-round pick out of Xavier University. He’s only appeared in seven games this season, starting three and turning in one quality start in 2021. The O’s have gone 2-5 in games he’s appeared in, including 0-3 in games he’s started, so a victory Saturday certainly seems unlikely.

Lowther vs Pivetta Stats

Lowther was completely overwhelmed in his last appearance, when he could only muster two innings last Sunday, giving up four hits, seven earned runs and three walks while striking out four in an eventual 22-7 blowout loss to the red-hot Blue Jays.

Of Zac Lowther's three big league starts, one was very good and the other two have been disasters. Today wasn't one of the good ones.

2+ IP, 4 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO.

— Joe Trezza (@JoeTrezz) September 12, 2021

Then, there was his first career start May 8th against these very same Red Sox. The rookie managed only 2.1 innings, allowing seven hits, seven earned runs and two walks while striking out three in an eventual 11-6 Baltimore defeat at Camden Yards.

Lowther has only pitched one scoreless inning on the road this season. But in five day game appearances (two starts), he’s gone 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA.

As for Pivetta, only eight of the 28-year-old right-hander’s 27 starts this season have been of the quality variety. The Sox have gone 15-12 in his rotation turns and came up just short in his last outing Sunday. Pivetta went 5.1 innings against the White Sox, allowing four hits, an earned run and no walks while striking out five in a 2-1 loss to Chicago.

Nick Pivetta, Wicked 85mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/wpQ0wLMezc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 12, 2021

Pivetta is 4-2 with a 5.60 ERA in 13 starts at home in 2021. He’s 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in eight day game starts.

Monster Offense

The home team may be barely over .500 so far in September, but the Red Sox have multiple players swinging hot bats this month. Entering Friday, six players are hitting at least .300, led by Jose Iglesias’ scorching .450 clip (9-for-20) in nine games prior to the series opener. That includes a home runs and four RBI.

How about Jose Iglesias turning back the clock and helping out the Red Sox in 2021? pic.twitter.com/9lXNQSehTw

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) September 14, 2021

Christian Vazquez, Alex Verdugo, Taylor Motter, Xander Bogaerts and Travis Shaw are also above .300, with the group combining to launch four long balls and drive in 21 runs prior to Friday’s game. Just outside that quintet is Bobby Dalbec, who leads the team with four September big flies and 11 RBI. Bottom line: the Sox are raking.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Meanwhile, a pair of probable Baltimore batters who have faced Pivetta have also been on fire in September ahead of Friday’s opener. Austin Hays has slugged six homers and driven in 15 runs, while Ryan Mountcastle has gone deep four times with eight RBI. Mountcastle is 2-for-9 lifetime against Pivetta, while Hays is 0-for-8. But don’t be surprised if either come through with a big hit Saturday.

Orioles vs Red Sox Pick

While I certainly think the home team will take care of business against the visiting O’s, -280 on the money line and -135 on the run line are far too hefty of prices to pay.

With both teams lineups rolling — and neither starter lighting the world on fire — the over is the obvious play here.

The Pick: Over 10.5 (-120)