April 10th MLB Odds and Picks – Phils’ Eflin, Braves’ Anderson Meet in Quick Rematch

• There are 15 games on the MLB schedule for Saturday, April 10th
• Season record: 11-13: -$234 loss (based on $100 wagered per unit)
• Some wagering advice for Saturday’s games can be found below

A full 15-game schedule is on tap for Saturday in Major League Baseball and New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom hopes for a better fate in his second start of the season.

The Mets host the Miami Marlins at 1:05pm ET at Citi Field. deGrom (0-0, 0.00), the two-time Cy Young Award winner, will look to break into the win column, after pitching six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in his first start but not factoring in the decision.

The Marlins counter with rookie left-hander Trevor Rogers (0-1, 4.50). At 1-6, Miami is tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst record in the major leagues.

The Mets are -315 favorites, the highest of any team on Saturday’s slate.

April 10 MLB Picks

Odds as of April 10th.

Pick 1: Phillies (+118)

The Philadelphia Phillies have long felt Zach Eflin could become one of the top pitchers in the major leagues. Perhaps this is the season it happens for the 27-year-old.

Eflin (0-0, 1.29) makes his second start at 7:20pm ET when he faces the Braves and rookie Ian Anderson (0-0, 1.80) in Atlanta. Eflin is coming off a fine initial outing in which he held the Braves to one run in seven innings in Philadelphia last Sunday, while striking out eight.

Zach Eflin, Painted 92mph Two Seamer. 🎨 pic.twitter.com/jvgaPza9Nt

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 4, 2021

Anderson also started that game. He settled down after a 27-pitch first inning to make it through five while allowing one run and four hits with seven strikeouts.

Eflin has been better than league average each of the last two seasons, posting an ERA+ of 107 in 2019 and 111 in 2020. He also pitched 15 innings in his final two starts last season and gave up just three runs.

Anderson is one of the game’s brightest pitching prospects and should again be a tough matchup. He can even hit a little bit.

Might have to give @Braves' Ian Anderson a hit (and run) grade after he legged out this double! pic.twitter.com/JisY5z6Yto

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 4, 2021

However, Eflin won both starts against the Braves last season, has a 3.22 ERA versus Atlanta in 10 career outings and shapes up a live underdog.

Pick 2: Rangers (+150)

Chris Paddack (0-1, 4.50) has a tough act to follow as he starts for the San Diego Padres against the Texas Rangers and Jordan Lyles (1-0, 3.18) at 7:05 p.m. in Arlington.

Joe Musgrove threw the first no-hitter in the Padres’ 52-year history on Friday night.

IT HAS HAPPENED ‼️

JOE MUSGROVE HAS THROWN THE FIRST NO-HITTER IN PADRES HISTORY 🙌 pic.twitter.com/zCWHtlG5Pk

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 10, 2021

Paddack has no-hit type of stuff but it’s hard to get handle on him. The 25-year-old followed a strong rookie year in 2019, in which he had a 9-7 record and 3.33 ERA in 26 starts, by going 4-5 with a 4.73 in 12 starts last season.

It has been profitable to fade Lyles for many years. His 45-66 career record hasn’t matched his status as a first-round draft pick.

"I'm excited where my stuff is right now."

Jordan Lyles on his performance against the Royals.#straightuptx pic.twitter.com/hcKoezhzHR

— Bally Sports Southwest (@BallySports_SW) April 4, 2021

However, Rangers manager Chris Woodward is using Lyles as a tandem starter who is relieved by Wes Benjamin. The setup worked well the first time through the rotation as Lyles allowed two runs in 5.2 innings to beat the Kansas City Royals last Sunday with eight strikeouts and no walks.

Coming off a strong outing, the Lyles/Benjamin combo  is worth a shot at these odds.

Pick 3: Brewers-Cardinals under 8 (-105)

The pitching matchup suggests betting the over when the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez (0-1, 7.20) faces the Milwaukee Brewers’ Adrian Houser (0-1, 3.60) at 2:15pm ET in St. Louis. Last season, Martinez’s ERA was 9.90 and Houser had a 5.30 mark.

However, both offenses have been spotty so far in 2021.

The Brewers are scoring just 2.86 runs a game and have been held to four runs or fewer in six of seven games. In fact, Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes had made a bit of history this season but has no wins to show for it.

.@Burnes16 is the first pitcher in @MLB history with consecutive starts of six or more innings, 1 hit or fewer and no walks. Two pitchers, however, have done this in consecutive appearances:

Cy Young (1904)
Hal Brown (1963)
 
First games for Cy and Brown were relief. #Brewers

— Mike Vassallo (@MikeVassallo13) April 8, 2021

While the Cardinals are averaging 5.14 runs a game, they have scored four or less in four of their last five games.

Let’s throw out the ERAs in this one and bank on both teams’ bats staying quiet for another day.

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