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Braves vs Astros World Series Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 24, 2021 · 7:38 PM PDT

Yordan Alvarez celebrates the ALCS victory
Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez celebrates after their win against the Boston Red Sox in Game 6 of baseball's American League Championship Series Friday, Oct. 22, 2021, in Houston. The Astros won 5-0, to win the ALCS series in game six. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
  • The Houston Astros host the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday (October 26th, 8:09 pm ET)
  • Houston will give the ball to Framber Valdez (1-0, 4.20 ERA), while Atlanta will counter with Charlie Morton (0-1, 3.77 ERA)
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros are the last two teams standing. It’s not the World Series most would have predicted, but it promises to be a very entertaining matchup nonetheless.

Houston has been pegged as the -150 chalk to win its second championship in the last five years, but opened as a slightly smaller favorite in the series opener.

Braves vs Astros Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves +110 +1.5 (-182) O 8.5 (-104)
Houston Astros -130 -1.5 (+150) U 8.5 (-118)

Odds as of Oct. 24th at FanDuel.

The Astros are currently -130 on the moneyline, in a game that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 pm ET at Minute Maid Park, with a warm night for baseball on deck. The forecast currently calls for 75 degree night time temperatures, while the retractable roof may be closed due to the possibility of thunderstorms.

Probable Pitchers

With Houston ace Lance McCullers Jr. all but ruled out for the World Series, number two starter Framber Valdez will get the nod in Game 1 for the Astros. Valdez is coming off the best start of any pitcher so far this postseason, pitching an 8-inning gem versus Boston in Game 5 of the ALCS.

The lefty scattered just three hits and allowed a single run in the 9-1 victory, striking out five along the way. The outing was a far cry from his previous two starts, where he coughed up a total of 13 hits and seven runs over only 7 innings to the Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox.

Valdez owns a 4-1 career playoff record in seven appearances, with a 3.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s never faced the Braves over his four-year career, but he’d be wise to pitch to the red-hot Eddie Rosario carefully. The NLCS MVP smacked 14 hits and three home runs versus LA in the NLCS, while driving in nine.

Morton vs Valdez 2021 Playoff Stats

Charlie Morton
VS
Framber Valdez
0-1 Record 1-0
3.77 ERA 4.20
1.26 WHIP 1.40
.192 OBA .286
2.4 SO/W Ratio 2.6

The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton, who’s back in the World Series for the second consecutive year. Morton was one of Tampa Bay’s go-to starters during their runner-up finish in 2020, posting a 3-1 record in four starts, with a 2.70 ERA. The 37-year-old spent two seasons with Houston in 2017-18, and was a member of their championship team five years ago.

He’s 0-1 this postseason in three outings, although his record isn’t a true reflection how he’s pitched. Morton has thrown the ball very well in two of his three starts, and is fresh off limiting the high powered Dodgers to just three hits and two hits in a no-decision in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Braves Batters Batting Average in ’21 Playoffs Astros Batters Batting Average vs Morton
Ozzie Albies .262 Jose Altuve .200
Austin Riley .250 Yordan Alvarez .500
Eddie Rosario .474 Michael Brantley .200
Dansby Swanson .237 Alex Bregman .250
Adam Duvall .229 Martin Maldonado .538
Freddie Freeman .294 Jason Castro .250
Travis d’Arnaud .194 Aledmys Diaz .000
Joc Pederson .276 Yuli Gurriel .333

The 37-year-old owns a 7-4 career playoff mark, and was 2-0 versus Houston in last year’s ALCS. He blanked the Astros in both outings over a combined 10.2 innings, while striking out 11.

One Houston batter to beware of is Yordan Alvarez. The ALCS MVP went 9-for-13 over the final three games of the series, racking up more hits than the Red Sox on his own in Games 5 and 6.

Braves vs Astros Pick

Playoff baseball breeds low scoring games, that is unless you’re facing Houston. The Astros scored at least five runs in five of the six ALCS games, and crossed the plate 23 times over their past three outings. They know Morton’s game inside and out not only from being his teammate, but also from 11 career meetings against him.

Houston boasted a slugging percentage of .451 and .792 OPS versus the Red Sox last round, while the Braves coughed up 17 total runs in their two NLCS losses. Over 8.5 is in play, but I prefer backing the Astros to get over their team total instead at plus money.

Pick: Houston Astros Over 4.5 Runs (+125)

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