Upcoming Match-ups

Braves vs Mets Odds, Betting Lines, and Probable Pitchers (July 29)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 28, 2021 · 9:21 PM PDT

Pete Alonso flipping his bat
New York Mets' Pete Alonso flips his bat after flying out to centerfield during the first inning of the first game of a baseball doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, July 26, 2021, in New York. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
  • The New York Mets are -145 favorites at home over the Atlanta Braves on Thursday
  • Taijuan Walker (7-4, 3.43) will start for the Mets against lefty Drew Smyly (7-4, 4.30)
  • The odds and pitching matchup can be found below with a prediction

The visiting Atlanta Braves will again try to cut into the New York Mets’ lead in the National League East when the teams square off at 12:10 pm ET in the finale of a rare five-game series at Citi Field.

The Mets (54-46, 32-17 home) and Braves (50-52, 24-27 away) have split the first four games of the series. New York holds a four-game division lead over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves are five games back and in third place.

Atlanta has alternated wins and losses in its last 12 games and is the underdog on Thursday.

Braves vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves +125 +1.5 (-165) Over 8.5 (-105)
New York Mets -145 -1.5 (+145) Under 8.5 (-115)

Odds as of July 28th at DraftKings.

The Mets opened at -140 on the moneyline and that has gone up slightly.

Probable Pitchers

Left-hander Drew Smyly (7-4, 4.30) is listed as the starter for the Braves. He will oppose Taijuan Walker (7-4, 3.43).

Smyly is scheduled to take the mound despite leaving his start with left knee pain.

That came last Saturday at Philadelphia when Smyly pitched four scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Phillies. He allowed three hits and three walks while striking out three.

Smyly vs Walker

Drew Smyly
VS
Taijuan Walker
7-3 Record 7-4
4.30 ERA 3.43
4.57 xERA 4.32
1.34 WHIP 1.17
2.33 SO/W 2.50

Smyly is 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his last nine starts and hasn’t lost since May 26. He likes to throw his curveball.

Smyly has five quality starts in 17 outings this season. He is 5-2 with a 4.01 ERA in 10 starts on the road and 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA in five night starts.

Smyly will be facing the Mets for the first time this season and just the third time in his career, second as a starter. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against New York and pitched seven scoreless innings in his lone appearance at Citi Field in 2019 while playing for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Walker has struggled in two starts since making the first All-Star Game appearance of his career.

He was rocked for six runs in 0.1 inning on July 18 by the Pirates in Pittsburgh, helped, of course, by this mess.

Walker also lost last Saturday against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays when he was tagged for six runs and eight hits in four innings with two walks and one strikeout.

Walker has logged six quality starts in 18 games this season. He has pitched well at Citi Field with a 4-1 record and 2.68 ERA in nine starts and is also 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts in day games.

In two starts against the Braves this season, Walker is 1-0 while pitching eight scoreless innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in four career starts versus Atlanta.

Riley, Alonso Mashing

Third baseman Austin Riley homered to account for the Braves lone run Wednesday night in a 2-1 loss to the Mets.

That was the sixth time Riley has gone deep in 13 games since the All-Star break. He is 17 for 47 (.362) in that span with 15 RBIs and six walks.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Braves Batters Batting Average vs Taijuan Walker
Joc Pederson .400
Pablo Sadoval .333
Austin Riley .333
Freddie Freeman .250
Stephen Vogt .214
Ozzie Albies .000
Abraham Almonte .000
Dansby Swanson .000
Ehire Adrianza .000
Guillermo Heredia .000
Mets Batters Batting Average vs Drew Smyly
James McCann .556
Pete Alonso .500
J.D. Davis .333
Jonathan Villar .167
Kevin Pillar .150
Michael Conforto .000
Jeff McNeil .000
Tomas Nido .000
Brandon Drury .000

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has also shined in 13 games since winning the All-Star Home Run Derby for the second consecutive time. He is 17 for 52 (.327) with eight runs, two doubles, five homers, 11 RBIs, and six walks.

Braves right fielder Joc Pederson has hit Walker well in his career, going 8 for 20 (.400) with two doubles and a home run.

Mets catcher James McCann is 5 for 9 with two homers off Smyly. They were once batterymates with the Detroit Tigers.

Braves vs Mets Pick

Walker has been awful since the All-Star break but believes he has made a mechanical adjustment between starts that will help the command of his fastball. Smyly, meanwhile, is a bit of question mark after being forced out of his last outing.

Let’s show some confidence in Walker figuring things out and getting back on track.

The Pick: Mets (-145)

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