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Cubs vs Indians Odds, Lines, and Spread – Aug 11

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 2:43 PM PST

Shane Bieber delivering pitch
After a dominant 2020 regular season, Shane Bieber looks to lead the Indians past the Yankees in Game 1 of their AL Wild-Card series. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • The Chicago Cubs are 1.5 run underdogs against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday (Aug. 11, 7:10 pm EST)
  • Jon Lester (1-0, 0.82 ERA) will start for Chicago, while Cleveland will give the ball to Adam Plutko (1-0, 2.57 ERA)
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The Cleveland Indians need to get their act together. Just a day after the club learned Zach Plesac violated virus safety protocol, news came out Monday that Mike Clevinger did the same while on a road trip in Chicago.

For those keeping track at home, that’s two-fifths of the rotation that must now go into quarantine, meaning Clevinger will miss his scheduled start on Tuesday versus the Chicago Cubs. Reliever Adam Plutko will take his place when the two teams meet at 7:10 pm EST.

Cubs vs Indians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Chicago Cubs +130 +1.5 (-175) Over 8 (-120)
Cleveland Indians -150 -1.5 (+145) Under 8 (-103)

Odds taken Aug. 11th

Surprisingly, Chicago isn’t favored in this matchup despite avoiding an ace in Clevinger. They’re +130 on the moneyline, in a game that features a total of eight in the Cubs vs Indians odds. Chicago owns the best winning percentage in baseball (.769), and are fresh off taking three of four from Kansas City. Cleveland meanwhile, has won back-to-back outings and five of the last six.

Plutko Still Deserves Respect

The under is 8-2 in the Indians’ last 10 games and don’t expect a high scoring affair now that Plutko is on the mound. The 28-year-old has 32 big league starts under his belt and went 7-5 as a starter in 2019.

He made a spot start two weeks ago against the Chicago White Sox and handled himself quite nicely. He tossed 6 innings of two-run ball versus one of the AL’s best lineups, striking out four en route to a 5-3 victory.

He’s made one career start against the Cubs back in 2018 and it was a doozie. He scattered two hits over six scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory.

Cubs Career Stats vs Plutko

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Kris Bryant 3 0 0 0 1 .000
Anthony Rizzo 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Javier Baez 2 0 0 0 1 .000
Wilson Contreras 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Kyle Schwarber 3 0 0 0 1 .000
David Bote 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Jason Heyward 1 0 0 0 0 .000
Nico Hoerner 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Victor Caratini 0 0 0 0 0 .000

The Cubs offense has been slightly above average this season, scoring five runs per game, but the main reason for their 10-3 start has been their pitching.

Lester Has Been Lights Out

At 36-years-old, Jon Lester’s best days were thought to be behind him. But so far in 2020, that hasn’t been the case. He’s been brilliant in both of his starts, allowing just a single run and four hits in 11 total innings of work.

Once a power pitcher, his strikeout rate has plummeted this season, but he’s finding other ways to get hitters out. He’s forced soft contact by over 26% of the batters he’s faced, and his 1.64 BB/9 rate would be by far the lowest of his career if it sustains.

He’s dominated Cleveland over the years, posting a 7-3 record and 2.97 ERA in 17 career starts. He last faced them back in 2018, coincidentally opposing Plutko, and allowed just one run in 7 innings of work.

Indians Career Stats vs Lester

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Cesar Hernandez 12 2 0 0 3 .167
Jose Ramirez 6 1 0 0 2 .167
Francisco Lindor 9 3 1 1 2 .333
Carlos Santana 20 2 0 0 6 .100
Franmil Reyes 5 4 1 1 0 .800
Bradley Zimmer 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Domingo Santana 6 0 0 0 2 .000
Beau Taylor 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Oscar Mercado 0 0 0 0 0 .000

After starting the year ice cold, the Cleveland bats have heated up a bit over the last week which has keyed their improved play. It’s worth noting however, that they haven’t hit left-handed pitching well this year. They’re batting just .218, with a .301 OBP against southpaws this season.

Runs Will Be Hard to Come By

Cleveland isn’t the only team to play a bunch of low scoring games recently, as the under has been a frequent winner in Chicago games as well. Four of the last six Cubs games have stayed under the total and this one is shaping up that way as well.

Chicago allows less than five runs per contest (4.46) and has kept its opponents below four runs in five of its last seven. Cleveland meanwhile, leads MLB in team ERA (2.04) and averages just 2.17 runs against per game.

Pick: Under 8 (-103)

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