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Dodgers Clayton Kershaw’s 2019 ERA Over/Under Set at 2.50

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 15, 2020 · 8:03 AM PDT

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Are Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers the best bet to win the National League? Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (flickr)
  • Oddsmakers have established the total on Clayton Kershaw’s ERA at 2.50
  • He went over that number last season for the first time since 2012
  • He’s led the NL in ERA on five separate occasions

Clayton Kershaw endured a difficult 2018 campaign. The Los Angeles Dodgers ace pitcher missed nearly a month with a back injury. He also dealt with biceps tendinitis.

In spring training, he’s currently rehabbing a shoulder injury. It’s uncertain whether he’ll be available as the Dodgers’ opening-day starter.

Last season, Kershaw’s 2.73 earned-run average was his worst since 2010 (2.91). Oddsmakers have set the total bar on his 2018 ERA at 2.50.

Clayton Kershaw Projected 2019 ERA

Clayton Kershaw Projected ERA For 2019 MLB Season Odds
Over 2.50 -115
Under 2.50 -115

*Odds taken 03/17/19

The three-time NL Cy Young Award winner has gone over that number just twice in the past eight seasons.

Clayton Kershaw Stats

Clayton Kershaw Stats W-L ERA Strikeouts WHIP
2014 21-3 1.77 239 0.85
2015 16-7 2.13 301 0.88
2016 12-4 1.69 172 0.72
2017 18-4 2.31 202 0.94
2018 9-5 2.73 155 1.04

He’s led the NL in ERA five times, most recently in 2017 (2.31) and four times in a row from 2011-14.

He looks to be trending the wrong way. Bet the over.

Pick: Over 2.50 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw Projected 2019 Win Total

Clayton Kershaw Projected Wins For 2019 MLB Season Odds
Over 13.5 -115
Under 13.5 -115

Between 2012-17, the argument over who was the best pitcher in baseball started and ended with Kershaw. Oh, there were pitchers over that span who’d step up and post a better year than him, but not since Sandy Koufax had Dodger fans witnessed a starting pitcher dominate the Majors for such a length of time.

Over that seven-season span, Kershaw was 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA. He won his three NL Cy Young Awards. He led the league in at least one major pitching category in every one of those years.

Koufax retired due to arthritis in his arm in 1966, and there are whispers growing ever louder that Kershaw’s best days may be behind him.

Last season, he threw 161.1 innings in 26 starts. All of his keys numbers – hits, walks and strikeouts per nine innings – displayed downturns in efficiency. His home runs per nine innings climbed for the third straight year. The radar gun indicated he’d lost about three mph off his fastball.

He’s gone under 13.5 wins in two of the past three seasons, and we think he’ll do it again.

Pick: Under 13.5 wins (-115)

Clayton Kershaw Projected 2019 WHIP

Clayton Kershaw Projected WHIP For 2019 MLB Season Odds
Over 1.10 -115
Under 1.10 -115

Eight times over 11 big-league seasons, Kershaw has pitched in the postseason. Those are generally harder innings on a pitcher’s arm, because more will be asked of him.

Overall, he’s made 340 starts and hurled 2,248.1 innings. He ranks 11th among active MLB pitchers in regular-season innings pitched (2,096). At 30, he’s two years younger or more than all 10 of those ahead of him.

Kershaw ranks 11th among active MLB pitchers in regular-season innings pitched (2,096).

Kershaw is guarded about his health. No one outside of his inner circle truly knows how he feels.

It’s never wise to wager on mysteries. Play the over on his WHIP.

Pick: Over 1.10 (-115)

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