Giants vs Padres Picks, Predictions & Odds (April 29)
- San Diego are -175 moneyline favorites in the Giants vs Padres odds on Saturday
- The game will be the first of two this weekend south of the border, as part of the Mexico City Series
- Get the latest Giants vs Padres picks, odds, and probable pitchers here
History will be made this weekend as the Giants (11-14) and Padres (13-14) play the first regular season games ever in Mexico, as part of the Mexico City series.
The first of two contests gets underway on Saturday, and it would be impossible to look at the MLB odds and not be shocked by the total.
Giants vs Padres Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | +150 | +1.5 (-115) | O 15 (-110) |
| San Diego Padres | -175 | -1.5 (-105) | U 15 (-110) |
The over/under for this contest is currently set at 15, with San Diego pegged as -175 moneyline favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 pm ET at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu in Mexico City, with clear skies and 81 degree game-time temperatures in the forecast.
Odds as of April 28 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
San Francisco vs San Diego Betting Total
If you’re wondering why the total is set so high, it has everything to do with altitude. Mexico City sits 7,350 above sea level, which is 2,150 feet higher than Coors Field in Colorado. Year after year Coors Field is considered the most hitter friendly park in baseball, and games there routinely see double-digit totals.
The @SFGiants and @Padres will be playing a two-game series at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium in Mexico City this weekend (April 29-30). The ballpark opened in 2019 and seats 20,576. It’s 7,320 feet above sea level (Coors Field is 5,200 h/t @jonschaeffer) pic.twitter.com/Y502M36ThQ
— MLB Cathedrals (@MLBcathedrals) April 24, 2023
Coors Field is so hitter friendly, that it even makes the Rockies bats look good. Colorado averages 1.2 runs more at home than on the road, and boasts a slugging percentage and OPS that are .107 and .169 points higher respectively.
If the thin Denver air has that kind of effect on performance, just imagine what an environment that is roughly 30% thinner can do.
Giants vs Padres Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea and Joe Musgrove will be tasked with trying to keep batters on both sides in check on Saturday.
Manaea enters play with an ERA of 6.61, and has failed to make it out of the 4th inning in two of his three starts. Batters have teed off on the Giants lefty, producing a .921 OPS, with five homers in only 16 innings.
The 31-year-old has plenty of experience versus the Padres starters in the MLB lineups, and it has not gone well for him. He’s yielded a .302 average over 96 at-bats, with a .510 slugging percentage and .872 OPS.
Manaea vs Musgrove Stats
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 6.61 | ERA | 5.40 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| .233 | OBA | .333 |
| 2.6 | SO/W Ratio | 0.0 |
Sam Diego will counter with Joe Musgrove, who’ll make his second start of the season. The righty lasted only 5 innings in his debut earlier this week, coughing up three runs and seven hits to Arizona.
Musgrove is coming off one of the best seasons of his career in 2022, setting personal best marks in ERA, WHIP, K/BB and opponent OBP. If there’s been one lingering concern over the past few seasons it’s been his home run rate, and that’s reared its ugly head plenty of times in previous meetings with the Giants.
Current San Fran batters are slugging .545 off him over 156 at-bats, with 11 home runs, 27 RBI and a .849 OPS.
Giants vs Padres Predictions
Both teams enter this game with a below .500 record, which is surprising especially on the Padres side. San Diego is a top-eight World Series odds contender, after the starting the year even higher on the oddsboard. They have all the talent in the world offensively, but that has not turned into success so far this season.
The Padres are averaging just 3.67 runs per game. That’s the fourth lowest total in all of MLB. They’re batting a measly .215, while their .669 OPS is a bottom-seven mark. San Diego is fresh off dropping two of three at home to the Cubs, scoring only seven runs.
It all gets underway tomorrow!@jonmorosi previews the upcoming events taking place at the Mexico City series this weekend. pic.twitter.com/jCe8R4yzg9
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 28, 2023
Perhaps a trip to a favorable environment, against a struggling starter, can help revitalize their lineup but it’s hard to imagine them scoring enough runs to help push this game over the number.
As for the Giants, they’re reeled off five wins in their past six games, but are a middling lineup at best. They rank below league average in scoring and batting average, and have struck out more than any other team in baseball.
Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu may be the most hitter friendly park the Giants and Padres will play in all season, but it still won’t be enough to take this game over the total.
Pick: Under 15 (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
