Hill, Dodgers Open as +123 Underdogs vs Scherzer, Nationals in NLDS Game 4 – Picks & Odds
- The Nationals must win Game 4 of the Division Series on Monday (Oct. 7, 6:40 PM ET) to keep their season alive
- With Max Scherzer on the hill for Washington, the Nats are mild favorites against the powerhouse Dodgers
- Is the value on Scherzer with his back against the wall, or LA to close things out?
Trailing the best-of-five Division Series 1-0, the Nationals went all in on Friday night against the Dodgers. The Nats evened things up, but used Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer to do so.
With Strasburg and Scherzer unavailable for Game 3, that left Anibal Sanchez to toe the rubber last night. Sanchez wasn’t bad, but Patrick Corbin was awful out of the bullpen, and now the Nats once again find themselves in a tight spot. Washington must win Monday night to keep the season alive.
Scherzer, who pitched five innings in the Wild Card Game last Tuesday, and one scoreless frame (striking out the side) on Friday, takes the mound for Washington. He is opposed by LA veteran Rich Hill. Do you side with the future Hall of Famer, or the team that’s dominated the National League all year?
Dodgers vs. Nationals NLDS Game 4 Odds
| Team | Odds | RunLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +123 | +1.5 (-180) | Over 8.5 (+100) |
| Washington Nationals | -133 | -1.5 (+160) | Under 8.5 (-120) |
*Odds taken 10/07/19.
Scherzer has been among the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade. While he was really good this year, his numbers were down slightly from previous years, and since the All Star Break, he has been pedestrian.
Hill, on the other hand, has been the model of consistency. He always spends half the season on the injured list, but is solid when healthy.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Whatever metric you prefer, the Dodgers have been the top dogs in the NL this year. From winning nine more games than their closest rival, to a run differential more than 100 runs better than any other team in the league, to scoring the most runs, and allowing the fewest, LA has been dominant.
Hill’s journey is an amazing one. He has persevered through personal and professional challenges to post outstanding numbers.
While Hill has a 4-1 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season, he appeared in just 13 games and will only be asked to get nine outs or so. He hasn’t pitched past the third inning since June, and made just one appearance between mid-June and mid-September. He has allowed one run on one hit in 5.2 innings spread over three appearances since returning.
Even though Hill won’t pitch deep into the game, LA has a bullpen with lots of good options. They got two shutdown innings from Julio Urias, a starter by trade, on Sunday. In Game 1, Kenta Maeda retired all five batters he faced. Dustin May, who gave up a run in Game 2, and Ross Stripling are highly capable of throwing multiple innings, too
Washington Nationals
That Nationals were among the best teams in baseball down the stretch, going 35-16 to finish the season. While their run differential was excellent, second-best in the NL, it came mostly from their hitting. Though Washington’s starting pitching is good, the bullpen is a mess.
Much like the regular season, three National starters (Scherzer, Strasburg, and Sanchez, and one good reliever, Daniel Hudson) have been strong in the playoffs, allowing a combined five runs in 22 innings. The rest of the staff has yielded 16 runs in 13 frames.
Thankfully, Washington manager Dave Martinez understands how bad his bullpen is. While this is not particularly helpful long-term, in a game that determines whether the season continues or not, Martinez announced everyone is available.
That means if Scherzer puts the team in position to win, even though ideally Strasburg will pitch game five, he could be pressed into duty to win game four. If you are betting game four, the last thing in the world you care about is game five.
The Play
If this matchup was strictly Scherzer vs Hill, because Scherzer has struggled of late and the Dodgers are the better team, we’d happily recommend a wager on LA with positive odds. However, this is really an LA bullpen day against the Nats who will throw the kitchen sink at this game.
Our hunch is Scherzer and Strasburg pitch, and we aren’t betting against that combo. Washington -133 is the play, but if the Nats win, and are out of quality starters, be prepared to double down on LA in Game 5 at home.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
