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Astros vs Athletics Game 1 Picks and Odds – Oct. 5th

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 11:57 AM PST

Houston Astros' Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa celebrating on the field after scoring a run.
Houston Astros' Jose Altuve (27) celebrates with Carlos Correa after scoring on an RBI single by Michael Brantley during the seventh inning in Game 6 of a baseball American League Championship Series, Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
  • The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics meet in a best-of-five in the 202 American League Division Series
  • Game 1 of the ALDS goes Monday at Dodger Stadium at 4:07 pm ET
  • Oakland won the season series 7-3 and is a slight favorite in Game 1; see the odds and preview below

After navigating their respective Wild Card series, the Astros and Athletics get set to square off in the American League Division Series.

Unlike the Wild Card matchups, there’s plenty of recent history here. In a heated AL West rivalry, the A’s ended Houston’s three-year run atop the AL West.

The best-of-five series kicks off with Game 1 on Monday afternoon at a cool and cloudy Dodger Stadium.

Astros vs Athletics Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros +105 +1.5 (-195) Over 8.0 (-120)
Oakland Athletics -115 -1.5 (+170) Under 8.0 (+100)

Odds as of Oct. 4th

Despite the game being played at a neutral site, the Athletics maintain their status as favorite. With no background against their opponent, the A’s actually went into Game 1 against the White Sox as underdogs in the Wild Card round.

Opening as the favorite plays well for the Astros vs Athletics betting trends; Oakland is 31-18 as a moneyline favorite this year. Despite all of the controversy entering this season, Houston still spent most of their time as favorites, as well. In their limited games as underdogs, the Astros struggled to a 5-13 record, straight-up.

Oakland Dominated Season Series

By most accounts, the Athletics have had three fairly successful regular seasons.

Back-to-back 97-win seasons (2018, 2019( were met with disappointment in the AL Wild Card game, but 2020 brought an AL West crown and a new level of domination over the Astros.

In the past two seasons, the A’s were 64-47 against the AL West, but 15-23 against the Astros. In 2020, they dominated everyone, going 26-14 within the division and 7-3 against Houston.

Correa, Bregman, Altuve Need to Back Up the Talk

While Carlos Correa had some strong words for the Astros doubters following their win over the Twins, they’ll need to keep the “us against the world” mentality going, especially because Correa, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve have not hit well against Oakland this year.

Correa, Bregman, Altuve vs Athletics in 2020

Player AVG HR RBI Runs OBP SLG%
Carlos Correa .188 0 1 1 .257 .188
Alex Bregman .095 0 2 0 .174 .143
Jose Altuve .190 0 0 0 0.190 0.190

Surprisingly, none of the trio have hit well at Dodger Stadium in 2020, either. Bregman hit .250, while Correa hit .193 in their two games there. Altuve has yet to play at Chavez Ravine in 2020.

Expect Greinke in Game 1

Both teams have had plenty of time off. The Astros haven’t played since Wednesday and the Athletics since Friday. Despite the lengthy layoff, neither has formally announced a Game 1 starter. Zack Greinke got the Game 1 nod versus the Twins and will almost certainly start on Monday.

Zack Greinke vs Athletics in 2020

2020 Stats
VS
vs Athletics
12 Starts 3
3-3 Record 1-1
4.03 ERA 3.71
5.6 Innings Per Start 5.2
67 Strikeouts 17
9 Walks 2
1.134 WHIP 1.176

At first glance, Greinke’s numbers look good against the A’s. But they’ve actually gotten progressively worse this season.

In his first start, he shut them out over six innings of work, striking out five. Then he gave up three runs in five innings in another win. But his last start saw Oakland get to him with four runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss.

Against the Twins, his walks got him into trouble, issuing three in four innings and only working four innings of one-run ball.

Oakland, meanwhile, has a number of different directions it can go.

Jesus Luzardo started Game 1 against the White Sox. He wasn’t good, but it’ll be almost a week between starts for him. Chad Bassitt will be on normal rest if he starts Monday, while Sean Manaea hasn’t appeared since September 24th.

Astros Must Come Out Strong

Both teams understand the importance of coming out strong in Game 1, but there’s added pressure on the Astros. If they get a strong start out of Zack Greinke, they can’t waste it.

While there may be some bumps, expect Greinke to out-duel whomever Oakland throws at him in a game that’s higher scoring than expected.

The Pick: Astros (+105), OVER 8.0 (-120)

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