Is There Still Value in Betting Max Scherzer for NL Cy Young?

• Jacob deGrom remains a heavy favorite to win his first Cy Young award with average odds of -250
• Can Max Scherzer close the gap during the final 10 games of the season?
• Will voters look just at ERA or will they consider a broad spectrum of statistics?

The 2018 NL Cy Young Award is shaping up to be a referendum on the importance of ERA. Will voters decide that earned run average is the best barometer for judging a pitcher’s excellence, or will they look at a broad cross-section of statistics instead?

Sportsbooks seems to be banking on the former as they’ve assigned NL ERA leader Jacob deGrom average odds of -250 to win the award. Rounding out the top three are Nationals ace Max Scherzer at +250 and Phillies phenom Aaron Nola at +850.

The argument in support of deGrom is that the 30-year-old All-Star has received an almost criminal lack of run support this season, and would surely have an additional five-to-six wins if the hapless Mets could get a ball out of the infield.

deGrom currently leads the National League in ERA, ERA+, and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and recently established a Major League record by giving up three runs or less in 26 consecutive starts. On most nights he’s had to be perfect on the mound as his teammates have found cruel and unusual ways of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Odds to Win the 2018 NL Cy Young Award

Much has been made of the Mets’ offensive ineptitude, but no one seems willing to acknowledge the fact that Scherzer has had to overcome the same issue on numerous occasions. The Nationals have scored three runs or less in six of his seven losses and were blanked in four of those games.

Despite the lack of support, Scherzer still leads the NL with 17 wins and also ranks first in innings pitched, complete games, strikeouts, WHIP, hits per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. His stellar 2.53 ERA ranks third in the league and is lower than the total he posted in two of his three Cy Young seasons.

Ol’ Blue Eye has repeatedly found ways to eke out wins and, unlike deGrom, hasn’t needed his fans to make excuses for why his stats aren’t better, or write 10,000 word essays explaining why wins are overrated.

Jacob deGrom vs Max Scherzer Statistical Comparison

Wins and run support are often out of a pitcher’s control (as deGrom’s fans so often point out), but it’s worth noting that they still matter to the Baseball Writers Association of America, the group solely responsible for determining who receives the Cy Young.

Wins and run support are often out of a pitcher’s control but they still matter to the Baseball Writers Association of America.

The BWAA gave the NL Cy Young award to 22-game winner Jake Arrieta in 2015 despite the fact that Zack Greinke had a superior ERA and WAR. They repeated that trend in 2016 when they gave the AL award to wins leader Rick Porcello even though Justin Verlander’s ERA and WAR were clearly better.

Is There Still Value in Betting Max Scherzer for NL Cy Young?

Absolutely. deGrom may have the superior ERA and a more compelling narrative, but Scherzer leads the National league in ten statistical categories. He’s tops in traditional glamour stats like strikeouts and innings pitched, and also ranks in the top three in modern metrics like Wins Above Replacement and WAR for Pitchers.

Scherzer will have a chance to improve his odds tonight when he takes on Jason Vargas and the Mets in Washington. The 34-year-old ace is undefeated against New York in 2018 and is 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA this year at home. Another win and nine plus K’s would go a long way in earning a few more Cy Young votes.