Marlins vs Braves Picks, Odds & Starting Pitchers (April 27)
- Atlanta is listed as a -180 favorite in the Marlins vs Braves odds on Thursday
- The Braves have taken the first three games of this four-game set
- See the latest Marlins vs Braves picks, odds, and probable pitchers
The Braves (17-8, 7-6 home) will have the brooms out on Thursday as they look to complete the four-game sweep of the Marlins (12-13, 5-7 away).
Online sportsbooks are extremely bullish on their chances, as Atlanta opened up as a massive home favorite in the MLB odds.
Marlins vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +155 | +1.5 (-130) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | -180 | -1.5 (+110) | U 8.5 (-110) |
The Braves are currently -180 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA, with 72 degree temperatures and a 80% chance of showers in the forecast.
Odds as of April 26 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
Miami vs Atlanta Probable Pitchers
The Braves enter play as the World Series odds favorites. They’ll give the ball to to Kyle Wright, who’s looked nothing like the 21 game winner from a year ago so far.
Wright has an ERA of 5.93 through three starts, failing to make it out of the 6th inning in any of his outings. Last time out, he coughed up seven hits and four runs to the Astros, including two homers.
“I gotta be better in a lot of different areas. I expect every time I take the mound that we are going to win. I have to start pitching to that standard.”
Kyle Wright on his performance tonight against the Astros. pic.twitter.com/w4YEiucbxm
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) April 23, 2023
Wright’s K/9 rate is a strikeout and a half lower this year than in 2022, while his opponent batting average is .36 points higher. He struck out over three batters for every walk issued last season, but in 2023 that number sits at only 1.4.
If there was ever a team to get right against however, Miami is it. Wright has dominated the Marlins in the past. He’s held Miami batters in the MLB starting lineups to a measly .111 average and .204 slugging percentage over 54 at-bats. Given the Marlins form, don’t be surprised if Wright turns his season around on Thursday – more on that later.
Garrett vs Wright Stats
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 2.84 | ERA | 5.93 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.68 |
| .308 | OBA | .268 |
| 5.3 | SO/W Ratio | 1.4 |
The Marlins will counter with Braxton Garrett. The 25-year-old has an impressive 2.84 ERA, but a closer look suggests he’s likely due for some regression.
Garrett is yielding a .308 average through three starts. He’s surrendered a hard hit rate of 41.3%, the highest of his career, yet he’s also posted a personal best 82.7% strand rate. A big reason for that is because opposing hitters are batting just .222 against him with runners in scoring position.
Considering that number is .35 points higher over the course of his career, things are likely going to even out soon. It just so happens that Thursday is a prime candidate for that to happen, as his opponent boasts one of baseball’s best lineups.
Marlins vs Braves Betting Notes
Atlanta has outscored Miami 24-8 through the first three games of this series, smacking nine home runs along the way. Ronald Acuna Jr. smoked a 442-foot blast in Wednesday’s victory, helping the Braves erase a four run deficit.
Do you mind if Ronald Acuña Jr. has the best season of his career so far? pic.twitter.com/XsySPpRNBO
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) April 27, 2023
Acuna Jr. is the favorite as it stands in the NL MVP odds, but he’s far from the only Atlanta hitter Garrett has to worry about. Both Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson have gone deep seven times, with each driving in 21+ runs.
The Braves rank second in the NL in home runs and slugging percentage, and top-five in OPS and average. On the bump, no NL team has a lower team ERA than Atlanta, and that’s in spite of Wright’s lacklustre start.
Miami meanwhile, has struggled at the dish all season, and this series has been no exception. The Marlins are averaging an NL worst 3.17 runs this season. Only the Padres have a worst on-base percentage in the National League than Miami, while the Marlins are also bottom-four in OPS.
Not everyone on Miami is having a disappointing season, as Luis Arraez is batting .421 through 76 at-bats. He’s already reached base 41 times, but the Marlins have been able to bring him home on only seven occasions.
Marlins vs Braves Predictions
Miami has exceeded four runs once in its last 12 games, and has dropped seven straight in Atlanta dating back to last season.
Marlins vs Braves 2023 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | Marlins | Braves | ATL, 6-4 |
| April 25 | Marlins | Braves | ATL, 7-4 |
| April 24 | Marlins | Braves | ATL, 11-0 |
Another low scoring performance is likely on deck for Miami, as their offense inspires zero confidence. This is a get right spot for Wright and when he exits the Atlanta bullpen should have no issues keeping the Marlins in check.
Braves relievers currently boast a 3.80 ERA, and the third highest WAR of any bullpen in the National League.
Pick: Miami Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-115)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
